Shomari Figures (D) defeated Rhett Marques (R) by roughly 7.5 points in the November 3, 2026, general election for Alabama’s 2nd district, with Figures at 53.8 percent and Marques at 46.2 percent on nearly complete counts. The redrawn map, implemented after a Supreme Court voting rights decision, reduced the district’s Black voting-age population and initially favored Republicans according to early forecasts, yet Figures maintained strong support in Montgomery County and other population centers. Late-cycle polling showed a toss-up or narrow Republican edge, but actual turnout and vote distribution produced a Democratic margin exceeding 5 points. Traders assign the highest probability to a Democrat 5 percent-plus outcome, consistent with the reported results and pending final certification.