Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.6% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei arrest, reflecting the absence of any credible reports, investigations, indictments, or charges from DOJ or FBI against him. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's March 2026 lawsuit against the US government over a Department of Defense "supply chain risk" designation, framed as retaliation for refusing unrestricted access to Claude AI models for military uses like autonomous weapons. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth labeled Amodei an "ideological lunatic" on April 30 and a White House meeting occurred April 18, these remain civil and policy disputes without criminal implications. Scenarios like sudden indictment or scandal could shift odds, though none appear imminent amid Amodei's focus on rapid business growth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$161,466 Vol.
$161,466 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$161,466 Vol.
$161,466 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.6% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei arrest, reflecting the absence of any credible reports, investigations, indictments, or charges from DOJ or FBI against him. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's March 2026 lawsuit against the US government over a Department of Defense "supply chain risk" designation, framed as retaliation for refusing unrestricted access to Claude AI models for military uses like autonomous weapons. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth labeled Amodei an "ideological lunatic" on April 30 and a White House meeting occurred April 18, these remain civil and policy disputes without criminal implications. Scenarios like sudden indictment or scandal could shift odds, though none appear imminent amid Amodei's focus on rapid business growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$161,466End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.6% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei arrest, reflecting the absence of any credible reports, investigations, indictments, or charges from DOJ or FBI against him. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's March 2026 lawsuit against the US government over a Department of Defense "supply chain risk" designation, framed as retaliation for refusing unrestricted access to Claude AI models for military uses like autonomous weapons. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth labeled Amodei an "ideological lunatic" on April 30 and a White House meeting occurred April 18, these remain civil and policy disputes without criminal implications. Scenarios like sudden indictment or scandal could shift odds, though none appear imminent amid Amodei's focus on rapid business growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$161,466End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.6% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei arrest, reflecting the absence of any credible reports, investigations, indictments, or charges from DOJ or FBI against him. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's March 2026 lawsuit against the US government over a Department of Defense "supply chain risk" designation, framed as retaliation for refusing unrestricted access to Claude AI models for military uses like autonomous weapons. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth labeled Amodei an "ideological lunatic" on April 30 and a White House meeting occurred April 18, these remain civil and policy disputes without criminal implications. Scenarios like sudden indictment or scandal could shift odds, though none appear imminent amid Amodei's focus on rapid business growth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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