Recent credible reporting from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman shows Apple has paused active development on the next-generation Vision Pro spatial computing headset, shifting resources toward a lighter, lower-cost AR glasses prototype expected no earlier than 2027. This follows the original model's 2024 debut and underwhelming sales momentum, with internal priorities now favoring incremental M-series refreshes or entirely new form factors over a full Vision Pro 2 refresh. The market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that typical Apple hardware cycles and supply-chain realities make a pre-2027 launch highly improbable. A sudden surge in consumer adoption or unexpected technical breakthrough could still compress timelines, though current signals point to resolution well after 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent credible reporting from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman shows Apple has paused active development on the next-generation Vision Pro spatial computing headset, shifting resources toward a lighter, lower-cost AR glasses prototype expected no earlier than 2027. This follows the original model's 2024 debut and underwhelming sales momentum, with internal priorities now favoring incremental M-series refreshes or entirely new form factors over a full Vision Pro 2 refresh. The market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that typical Apple hardware cycles and supply-chain realities make a pre-2027 launch highly improbable. A sudden surge in consumer adoption or unexpected technical breakthrough could still compress timelines, though current signals point to resolution well after 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$4,466End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent credible reporting from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman shows Apple has paused active development on the next-generation Vision Pro spatial computing headset, shifting resources toward a lighter, lower-cost AR glasses prototype expected no earlier than 2027. This follows the original model's 2024 debut and underwhelming sales momentum, with internal priorities now favoring incremental M-series refreshes or entirely new form factors over a full Vision Pro 2 refresh. The market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that typical Apple hardware cycles and supply-chain realities make a pre-2027 launch highly improbable. A sudden surge in consumer adoption or unexpected technical breakthrough could still compress timelines, though current signals point to resolution well after 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,466End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent credible reporting from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman shows Apple has paused active development on the next-generation Vision Pro spatial computing headset, shifting resources toward a lighter, lower-cost AR glasses prototype expected no earlier than 2027. This follows the original model's 2024 debut and underwhelming sales momentum, with internal priorities now favoring incremental M-series refreshes or entirely new form factors over a full Vision Pro 2 refresh. The market-implied odds reflect trader recognition that typical Apple hardware cycles and supply-chain realities make a pre-2027 launch highly improbable. A sudden surge in consumer adoption or unexpected technical breakthrough could still compress timelines, though current signals point to resolution well after 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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