Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, particularly the divided 6-3 April vote and the mid-May summary of opinions flagging upside inflation risks from Middle East energy shocks, have anchored trader expectations for a 25 basis point rate increase at the June 16 decision. The central bank raised its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8 percent while trimming growth projections, aligning with a Reuters poll showing nearly two-thirds of economists anticipating a move to 1.00 percent. Persistent yen weakness near 157 per dollar and suspected interventions reinforce the tightening path, though downgraded growth and geopolitical uncertainty sustain the modest probability of no change. Markets will closely monitor May inflation data and further communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 79.8%
No change 16%
50+ bps increase 1.1%
Decrease rates <1%
$117,014 Vol.
$117,014 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
1%
No change
16%
25 bps increase
80%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 79.8%
No change 16%
50+ bps increase 1.1%
Decrease rates <1%
$117,014 Vol.
$117,014 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
$34,155 Vol.
1%
No change
$30,443 Vol.
16%
25 bps increase
$28,039 Vol.
80%
50+ bps increase
$24,377 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, particularly the divided 6-3 April vote and the mid-May summary of opinions flagging upside inflation risks from Middle East energy shocks, have anchored trader expectations for a 25 basis point rate increase at the June 16 decision. The central bank raised its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8 percent while trimming growth projections, aligning with a Reuters poll showing nearly two-thirds of economists anticipating a move to 1.00 percent. Persistent yen weakness near 157 per dollar and suspected interventions reinforce the tightening path, though downgraded growth and geopolitical uncertainty sustain the modest probability of no change. Markets will closely monitor May inflation data and further communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$117,014End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, particularly the divided 6-3 April vote and the mid-May summary of opinions flagging upside inflation risks from Middle East energy shocks, have anchored trader expectations for a 25 basis point rate increase at the June 16 decision. The central bank raised its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8 percent while trimming growth projections, aligning with a Reuters poll showing nearly two-thirds of economists anticipating a move to 1.00 percent. Persistent yen weakness near 157 per dollar and suspected interventions reinforce the tightening path, though downgraded growth and geopolitical uncertainty sustain the modest probability of no change. Markets will closely monitor May inflation data and further communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$117,014End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, particularly the divided 6-3 April vote and the mid-May summary of opinions flagging upside inflation risks from Middle East energy shocks, have anchored trader expectations for a 25 basis point rate increase at the June 16 decision. The central bank raised its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8 percent while trimming growth projections, aligning with a Reuters poll showing nearly two-thirds of economists anticipating a move to 1.00 percent. Persistent yen weakness near 157 per dollar and suspected interventions reinforce the tightening path, though downgraded growth and geopolitical uncertainty sustain the modest probability of no change. Markets will closely monitor May inflation data and further communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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