**Recent Focus survey data showing the median 2026 IPCA forecast rising slightly to 4.92% from 4.90% has reinforced trader positioning around the 5.00-5.49% bin at 43.5% implied probability.** Market participants price in resilient services inflation and a tight labor market offsetting moderating GDP growth and the central bank's fifth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 13.75% in September, with expectations for one further reduction by year-end. The BCB's own 5.2% projection and above-target 12-month readings near 4.2% in August underscore the balance of risks, while longer-term expectations remain anchored near 4.3% for 2027. Upcoming data releases and post-election fiscal signals represent key swing factors for the final 2026 outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 43.5%
4.50-4.99% 29.8%
5.50-5.99% 20.3%
4.00-4.49% 2.7%
$123,294 Vol.
$123,294 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
<1%
3.50-3.99%
1%
4.00-4.49%
3%
4.50-4.99%
30%
5.00-5.49%
43%
5.50-5.99%
20%
6.00-6.49%
2%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
<1%
5.00-5.49% 43.5%
4.50-4.99% 29.8%
5.50-5.99% 20.3%
4.00-4.49% 2.7%
$123,294 Vol.
$123,294 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$6,842 Vol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$6,724 Vol.
<1%
3.50-3.99%
$14,279 Vol.
1%
4.00-4.49%
$15,402 Vol.
3%
4.50-4.99%
$24,185 Vol.
30%
5.00-5.49%
$18,749 Vol.
43%
5.50-5.99%
$14,593 Vol.
20%
6.00-6.49%
$8,051 Vol.
2%
6.50-6.99%
$8,240 Vol.
<1%
7.00%+
$6,231 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Recent Focus survey data showing the median 2026 IPCA forecast rising slightly to 4.92% from 4.90% has reinforced trader positioning around the 5.00-5.49% bin at 43.5% implied probability.** Market participants price in resilient services inflation and a tight labor market offsetting moderating GDP growth and the central bank's fifth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 13.75% in September, with expectations for one further reduction by year-end. The BCB's own 5.2% projection and above-target 12-month readings near 4.2% in August underscore the balance of risks, while longer-term expectations remain anchored near 4.3% for 2027. Upcoming data releases and post-election fiscal signals represent key swing factors for the final 2026 outcome.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$123,294End Date
Jan 13, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Recent Focus survey data showing the median 2026 IPCA forecast rising slightly to 4.92% from 4.90% has reinforced trader positioning around the 5.00-5.49% bin at 43.5% implied probability.** Market participants price in resilient services inflation and a tight labor market offsetting moderating GDP growth and the central bank's fifth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 13.75% in September, with expectations for one further reduction by year-end. The BCB's own 5.2% projection and above-target 12-month readings near 4.2% in August underscore the balance of risks, while longer-term expectations remain anchored near 4.3% for 2027. Upcoming data releases and post-election fiscal signals represent key swing factors for the final 2026 outcome.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$123,294End Date
Jan 13, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Recent Focus survey data showing the median 2026 IPCA forecast rising slightly to 4.92% from 4.90% has reinforced trader positioning around the 5.00-5.49% bin at 43.5% implied probability.** Market participants price in resilient services inflation and a tight labor market offsetting moderating GDP growth and the central bank's fifth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 13.75% in September, with expectations for one further reduction by year-end. The BCB's own 5.2% projection and above-target 12-month readings near 4.2% in August underscore the balance of risks, while longer-term expectations remain anchored near 4.3% for 2027. Upcoming data releases and post-election fiscal signals represent key swing factors for the final 2026 outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions