Recent August CPI data, showing core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year alongside a firmer 0.3% monthly gain, has anchored trader expectations for the closely watched Core PCE YoY release due September 30. July Core PCE held steady at 3.3%, matching consensus and prior months, reflecting persistent services and shelter pressures that have kept the Fed's preferred gauge above its 2% target. Market-implied odds clustering around 3.2–3.4% reflect the translation from CPI components, recent PPI readings, and limited evidence of further disinflation in the past month. With the FOMC having maintained its policy stance amid sticky readings, the upcoming BEA report will clarify whether underlying price trends are moderating enough to shift rate-path probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.4% 37%
3.2% 26%
3.1% 19%
3.3% 18%
$52,211 Vol.
$52,211 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
≤3.0%
6%
3.1%
19%
3.2%
26%
3.3%
18%
3.4%
37%
3.5%
1%
3.6%+
1%
3.4% 37%
3.2% 26%
3.1% 19%
3.3% 18%
$52,211 Vol.
$52,211 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
≤3.0%
$4,123 Vol.
6%
3.1%
$15,144 Vol.
19%
3.2%
$12,956 Vol.
26%
3.3%
$5,264 Vol.
18%
3.4%
$8,465 Vol.
37%
3.5%
$3,349 Vol.
1%
3.6%+
$2,910 Vol.
1%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, showing core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year alongside a firmer 0.3% monthly gain, has anchored trader expectations for the closely watched Core PCE YoY release due September 30. July Core PCE held steady at 3.3%, matching consensus and prior months, reflecting persistent services and shelter pressures that have kept the Fed's preferred gauge above its 2% target. Market-implied odds clustering around 3.2–3.4% reflect the translation from CPI components, recent PPI readings, and limited evidence of further disinflation in the past month. With the FOMC having maintained its policy stance amid sticky readings, the upcoming BEA report will clarify whether underlying price trends are moderating enough to shift rate-path probabilities.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Volume
$52,211End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, showing core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year alongside a firmer 0.3% monthly gain, has anchored trader expectations for the closely watched Core PCE YoY release due September 30. July Core PCE held steady at 3.3%, matching consensus and prior months, reflecting persistent services and shelter pressures that have kept the Fed's preferred gauge above its 2% target. Market-implied odds clustering around 3.2–3.4% reflect the translation from CPI components, recent PPI readings, and limited evidence of further disinflation in the past month. With the FOMC having maintained its policy stance amid sticky readings, the upcoming BEA report will clarify whether underlying price trends are moderating enough to shift rate-path probabilities.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$52,211End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent August CPI data, showing core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year alongside a firmer 0.3% monthly gain, has anchored trader expectations for the closely watched Core PCE YoY release due September 30. July Core PCE held steady at 3.3%, matching consensus and prior months, reflecting persistent services and shelter pressures that have kept the Fed's preferred gauge above its 2% target. Market-implied odds clustering around 3.2–3.4% reflect the translation from CPI components, recent PPI readings, and limited evidence of further disinflation in the past month. With the FOMC having maintained its policy stance amid sticky readings, the upcoming BEA report will clarify whether underlying price trends are moderating enough to shift rate-path probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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