Recent energy price surges, particularly diesel costs rising sharply amid geopolitical tensions, have elevated producer inflation and created a tight distribution of probabilities across 5.1–5.9%+ outcomes for the September 2026 PPI YoY release. The August print came in at 5.4% year-over-year, 0.1 percentage point above consensus, with final demand goods advancing 1.1% while core measures excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% month-over-month. Traders weigh these pipeline pressures against softer core services readings and upcoming CPI data, which will inform whether the acceleration persists or moderates ahead of the October 15 release. Market-implied odds reflect this balance between commodity volatility and broader demand signals, with no single outcome exceeding 36% as participants price in the inherent month-to-month variability in wholesale prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.9%+ 35%
5.8% 21%
5.5% 19%
5.6% 19%
NEW
NEW
Oct 15, 2026
≤5.0%
14%
5.1%
13%
5.2%
14%
5.3%
16%
5.4%
16%
5.5%
19%
5.6%
19%
5.7%
18%
5.8%
21%
5.9%+
35%
5.9%+ 35%
5.8% 21%
5.5% 19%
5.6% 19%
NEW
NEW
Oct 15, 2026
≤5.0%
$23 Vol.
14%
5.1%
$23 Vol.
13%
5.2%
$23 Vol.
14%
5.3%
$23 Vol.
16%
5.4%
$23 Vol.
16%
5.5%
$23 Vol.
19%
5.6%
$23 Vol.
19%
5.7%
$23 Vol.
18%
5.8%
$23 Vol.
21%
5.9%+
$23 Vol.
35%
This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on October 15, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent energy price surges, particularly diesel costs rising sharply amid geopolitical tensions, have elevated producer inflation and created a tight distribution of probabilities across 5.1–5.9%+ outcomes for the September 2026 PPI YoY release. The August print came in at 5.4% year-over-year, 0.1 percentage point above consensus, with final demand goods advancing 1.1% while core measures excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% month-over-month. Traders weigh these pipeline pressures against softer core services readings and upcoming CPI data, which will inform whether the acceleration persists or moderates ahead of the October 15 release. Market-implied odds reflect this balance between commodity volatility and broader demand signals, with no single outcome exceeding 36% as participants price in the inherent month-to-month variability in wholesale prices.
This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on October 15, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on October 15, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$230End Date
Oct 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/ppi/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on October 15, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent energy price surges, particularly diesel costs rising sharply amid geopolitical tensions, have elevated producer inflation and created a tight distribution of probabilities across 5.1–5.9%+ outcomes for the September 2026 PPI YoY release. The August print came in at 5.4% year-over-year, 0.1 percentage point above consensus, with final demand goods advancing 1.1% while core measures excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% month-over-month. Traders weigh these pipeline pressures against softer core services readings and upcoming CPI data, which will inform whether the acceleration persists or moderates ahead of the October 15 release. Market-implied odds reflect this balance between commodity volatility and broader demand signals, with no single outcome exceeding 36% as participants price in the inherent month-to-month variability in wholesale prices.
This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on October 15, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on October 15, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$230End Date
Oct 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/ppi/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent energy price surges, particularly diesel costs rising sharply amid geopolitical tensions, have elevated producer inflation and created a tight distribution of probabilities across 5.1–5.9%+ outcomes for the September 2026 PPI YoY release. The August print came in at 5.4% year-over-year, 0.1 percentage point above consensus, with final demand goods advancing 1.1% while core measures excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% month-over-month. Traders weigh these pipeline pressures against softer core services readings and upcoming CPI data, which will inform whether the acceleration persists or moderates ahead of the October 15 release. Market-implied odds reflect this balance between commodity volatility and broader demand signals, with no single outcome exceeding 36% as participants price in the inherent month-to-month variability in wholesale prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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