Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week, fueled by ongoing engagement with Grok updates, xAI improvements, and rapid-fire replies to tech discussions, has anchored trader sentiment around the 180–219 tweet range. With 180–199 holding a slim edge at 40% implied probability over the 34.8% for 200–219, markets reflect the narrow gap between his typical daily volume and the potential for spikes from late-week developments. Historical patterns show Musk averaging roughly 25–30 posts per day when immersed in product announcements, yet any surge in high-engagement threads or external events could easily push totals higher. Traders are watching the final two days closely, as even modest increases in replies or media shares could shift the outcome between these closely matched brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated180-199 40.6%
200-219 34.4%
220-239 15.0%
160-179 6.8%
$9,506,068 Vol.
$9,506,068 Vol.
May 19, 2026
140-159
<1%
160-179
7%
180-199
41%
200-219
34%
220-239
15%
240-259
2%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 40.6%
200-219 34.4%
220-239 15.0%
160-179 6.8%
$9,506,068 Vol.
$9,506,068 Vol.
May 19, 2026
140-159
$683,011 Vol.
<1%
160-179
$451,208 Vol.
7%
180-199
$363,574 Vol.
41%
200-219
$344,684 Vol.
34%
220-239
$365,149 Vol.
15%
240-259
$302,653 Vol.
2%
260-279
$290,120 Vol.
1%
280-299
$264,614 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$320,714 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$369,406 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$429,849 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$416,794 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$400,319 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$525,596 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$157,801 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$82,148 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$67,044 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$29,190 Vol.
<1%
500+
$241,769 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week, fueled by ongoing engagement with Grok updates, xAI improvements, and rapid-fire replies to tech discussions, has anchored trader sentiment around the 180–219 tweet range. With 180–199 holding a slim edge at 40% implied probability over the 34.8% for 200–219, markets reflect the narrow gap between his typical daily volume and the potential for spikes from late-week developments. Historical patterns show Musk averaging roughly 25–30 posts per day when immersed in product announcements, yet any surge in high-engagement threads or external events could easily push totals higher. Traders are watching the final two days closely, as even modest increases in replies or media shares could shift the outcome between these closely matched brackets.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ET
Volume
$9,506,068End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week, fueled by ongoing engagement with Grok updates, xAI improvements, and rapid-fire replies to tech discussions, has anchored trader sentiment around the 180–219 tweet range. With 180–199 holding a slim edge at 40% implied probability over the 34.8% for 200–219, markets reflect the narrow gap between his typical daily volume and the potential for spikes from late-week developments. Historical patterns show Musk averaging roughly 25–30 posts per day when immersed in product announcements, yet any surge in high-engagement threads or external events could easily push totals higher. Traders are watching the final two days closely, as even modest increases in replies or media shares could shift the outcome between these closely matched brackets.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$9,506,068End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week, fueled by ongoing engagement with Grok updates, xAI improvements, and rapid-fire replies to tech discussions, has anchored trader sentiment around the 180–219 tweet range. With 180–199 holding a slim edge at 40% implied probability over the 34.8% for 200–219, markets reflect the narrow gap between his typical daily volume and the potential for spikes from late-week developments. Historical patterns show Musk averaging roughly 25–30 posts per day when immersed in product announcements, yet any surge in high-engagement threads or external events could easily push totals higher. Traders are watching the final two days closely, as even modest increases in replies or media shares could shift the outcome between these closely matched brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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