Trader sentiment heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range for Elon Musk over the May 18-20 window, driven by his established weekend posting cadence that typically averages 15-20 posts daily amid ongoing operational demands at Tesla and xAI. Recent platform activity shows steady but not elevated output, with no major product launches or regulatory announcements expected to trigger spikes that would push volumes into the 90-plus brackets. Market-implied odds reflect this consistent baseline while assigning minimal probability to outliers above 140, acknowledging the inherent variability in his spontaneous replies and threads. Upcoming chart updates or any surprise SpaceX milestones remain the key swing factors that could shift the distribution before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 50%
65-89 27%
<40 15%
90-114 9%
NEW
$26,902 Vol.
NEW
$26,902 Vol.
May 20, 2026
<40
15%
40-64
50%
65-89
27%
90-114
9%
115-139
3%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 50%
65-89 27%
<40 15%
90-114 9%
NEW
$26,902 Vol.
NEW
$26,902 Vol.
May 20, 2026
<40
$770 Vol.
15%
40-64
$2,068 Vol.
50%
65-89
$1,363 Vol.
27%
90-114
$4,357 Vol.
9%
115-139
$2,240 Vol.
3%
140-164
$1,562 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$1,786 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$2,570 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$5,080 Vol.
<1%
240+
$5,105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader sentiment heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range for Elon Musk over the May 18-20 window, driven by his established weekend posting cadence that typically averages 15-20 posts daily amid ongoing operational demands at Tesla and xAI. Recent platform activity shows steady but not elevated output, with no major product launches or regulatory announcements expected to trigger spikes that would push volumes into the 90-plus brackets. Market-implied odds reflect this consistent baseline while assigning minimal probability to outliers above 140, acknowledging the inherent variability in his spontaneous replies and threads. Upcoming chart updates or any surprise SpaceX milestones remain the key swing factors that could shift the distribution before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$26,902End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader sentiment heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range for Elon Musk over the May 18-20 window, driven by his established weekend posting cadence that typically averages 15-20 posts daily amid ongoing operational demands at Tesla and xAI. Recent platform activity shows steady but not elevated output, with no major product launches or regulatory announcements expected to trigger spikes that would push volumes into the 90-plus brackets. Market-implied odds reflect this consistent baseline while assigning minimal probability to outliers above 140, acknowledging the inherent variability in his spontaneous replies and threads. Upcoming chart updates or any surprise SpaceX milestones remain the key swing factors that could shift the distribution before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$26,902End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskTrader sentiment heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range for Elon Musk over the May 18-20 window, driven by his established weekend posting cadence that typically averages 15-20 posts daily amid ongoing operational demands at Tesla and xAI. Recent platform activity shows steady but not elevated output, with no major product launches or regulatory announcements expected to trigger spikes that would push volumes into the 90-plus brackets. Market-implied odds reflect this consistent baseline while assigning minimal probability to outliers above 140, acknowledging the inherent variability in his spontaneous replies and threads. Upcoming chart updates or any surprise SpaceX milestones remain the key swing factors that could shift the distribution before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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