Traders are pricing Elon Musk’s established high-volume X posting cadence as the dominant driver behind the 54% implied probability for 40-64 tweets across May 18-20. Recent activity trackers show daily averages of 25-34 posts, fueled by rapid-fire replies on cultural debates, AI developments, and company updates that keep engagement elevated. Similar short-window markets have resolved near these mid-range buckets when no major launch or controversy spikes output, while the 24.5% odds on 65-89 reflect the chance of an extra burst of replies or memes. With the period beginning immediately, any fresh Starship test footage or policy commentary could push totals higher, though the current skin-in-the-game consensus favors his baseline rhythm over outlier surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 55%
65-89 25%
<40 17%
90-114 6%
NEW
$41,804 Vol.
NEW
$41,804 Vol.
May 20, 2026
<40
17%
40-64
55%
65-89
25%
90-114
6%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 55%
65-89 25%
<40 17%
90-114 6%
NEW
$41,804 Vol.
NEW
$41,804 Vol.
May 20, 2026
<40
$2,248 Vol.
17%
40-64
$3,764 Vol.
55%
65-89
$2,712 Vol.
25%
90-114
$5,231 Vol.
6%
115-139
$4,163 Vol.
1%
140-164
$2,591 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$4,417 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$4,256 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$6,386 Vol.
<1%
240+
$6,176 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing Elon Musk’s established high-volume X posting cadence as the dominant driver behind the 54% implied probability for 40-64 tweets across May 18-20. Recent activity trackers show daily averages of 25-34 posts, fueled by rapid-fire replies on cultural debates, AI developments, and company updates that keep engagement elevated. Similar short-window markets have resolved near these mid-range buckets when no major launch or controversy spikes output, while the 24.5% odds on 65-89 reflect the chance of an extra burst of replies or memes. With the period beginning immediately, any fresh Starship test footage or policy commentary could push totals higher, though the current skin-in-the-game consensus favors his baseline rhythm over outlier surges.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$41,804End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing Elon Musk’s established high-volume X posting cadence as the dominant driver behind the 54% implied probability for 40-64 tweets across May 18-20. Recent activity trackers show daily averages of 25-34 posts, fueled by rapid-fire replies on cultural debates, AI developments, and company updates that keep engagement elevated. Similar short-window markets have resolved near these mid-range buckets when no major launch or controversy spikes output, while the 24.5% odds on 65-89 reflect the chance of an extra burst of replies or memes. With the period beginning immediately, any fresh Starship test footage or policy commentary could push totals higher, though the current skin-in-the-game consensus favors his baseline rhythm over outlier surges.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$41,804End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskTraders are pricing Elon Musk’s established high-volume X posting cadence as the dominant driver behind the 54% implied probability for 40-64 tweets across May 18-20. Recent activity trackers show daily averages of 25-34 posts, fueled by rapid-fire replies on cultural debates, AI developments, and company updates that keep engagement elevated. Similar short-window markets have resolved near these mid-range buckets when no major launch or controversy spikes output, while the 24.5% odds on 65-89 reflect the chance of an extra burst of replies or memes. With the period beginning immediately, any fresh Starship test footage or policy commentary could push totals higher, though the current skin-in-the-game consensus favors his baseline rhythm over outlier surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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