Elon Musk's elevated posting pace on X through mid-May 2026 has anchored trader consensus around the 800–960 tweet range, where the top four outcomes sit within a tight 1.5-point spread. Daily bursts of replies, commentary on AI developments, and policy exchanges have pushed the implied probability for bins like 920–959 to 11.3 percent, reflecting real-time volume rather than any single viral event. Historical May patterns show Musk averaging 25–40 posts per day, yet this month’s accelerated rhythm—driven by ongoing platform updates and cultural debates—has narrowed the gap between frontrunners and trailing brackets. With roughly two weeks remaining, chart updates and any spikes in engagement could still shift momentum toward higher or lower ranges before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated920-959 12.5%
800-839 11.2%
840-879 10.8%
880-919 10.3%
$3,216,111 Vol.
$3,216,111 Vol.
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
3%
680-699
3%
700-719
3%
720-739
4%
740-759
5%
760-779
5%
780-799
6%
800-839
11%
840-879
11%
880-919
10%
920-959
13%
960-999
9%
1000-1039
5%
1040-1079
6%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
<1%
1200-1239
<1%
1240-1279
<1%
1280-1319
<1%
1320-1359
<1%
1360-1399
<1%
1400-1439
<1%
1440-1479
<1%
1480-1519
<1%
1520-1559
<1%
1560-1599
<1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
920-959 12.5%
800-839 11.2%
840-879 10.8%
880-919 10.3%
$3,216,111 Vol.
$3,216,111 Vol.
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
3%
680-699
3%
700-719
3%
720-739
4%
740-759
5%
760-779
5%
780-799
6%
800-839
11%
840-879
11%
880-919
10%
920-959
13%
960-999
9%
1000-1039
5%
1040-1079
6%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
<1%
1200-1239
<1%
1240-1279
<1%
1280-1319
<1%
1320-1359
<1%
1360-1399
<1%
1400-1439
<1%
1440-1479
<1%
1480-1519
<1%
1520-1559
<1%
1560-1599
<1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's elevated posting pace on X through mid-May 2026 has anchored trader consensus around the 800–960 tweet range, where the top four outcomes sit within a tight 1.5-point spread. Daily bursts of replies, commentary on AI developments, and policy exchanges have pushed the implied probability for bins like 920–959 to 11.3 percent, reflecting real-time volume rather than any single viral event. Historical May patterns show Musk averaging 25–40 posts per day, yet this month’s accelerated rhythm—driven by ongoing platform updates and cultural debates—has narrowed the gap between frontrunners and trailing brackets. With roughly two weeks remaining, chart updates and any spikes in engagement could still shift momentum toward higher or lower ranges before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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