Elon Musk's X posting pace through mid-May has created a tight race among mid-range buckets on the full-month market, with 840-879 tweets currently leading at 11.4% implied probability. Traders are weighing his recent 15-to-20 daily average—fueled by Tesla and SpaceX updates plus meme-driven engagement—against historical swings that often dip during intensive executive stretches or platform algorithm tweaks. Key differentiators include the potential for late-month viral spikes from controversies or product announcements versus steadier but lower output in quieter periods, a pattern seen in prior high-volume months. With roughly two weeks left and no dominant frontrunner, the spread underscores how sudden cultural moments or business developments could still shift the final tally before May 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated840-879 11.4%
880-919 10.8%
920-959 10.4%
800-839 9.8%
$3,238,488 Vol.
$3,238,488 Vol.
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
1%
640-659
2%
660-679
3%
680-699
2%
700-719
3%
720-739
5%
740-759
5%
760-779
5%
780-799
6%
800-839
10%
840-879
11%
880-919
11%
920-959
10%
960-999
9%
1000-1039
5%
1040-1079
4%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
<1%
1200-1239
<1%
1240-1279
<1%
1280-1319
<1%
1320-1359
<1%
1360-1399
<1%
1400-1439
<1%
1440-1479
<1%
1480-1519
<1%
1520-1559
<1%
1560-1599
<1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
840-879 11.4%
880-919 10.8%
920-959 10.4%
800-839 9.8%
$3,238,488 Vol.
$3,238,488 Vol.
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
1%
640-659
2%
660-679
3%
680-699
2%
700-719
3%
720-739
5%
740-759
5%
760-779
5%
780-799
6%
800-839
10%
840-879
11%
880-919
11%
920-959
10%
960-999
9%
1000-1039
5%
1040-1079
4%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
<1%
1200-1239
<1%
1240-1279
<1%
1280-1319
<1%
1320-1359
<1%
1360-1399
<1%
1400-1439
<1%
1440-1479
<1%
1480-1519
<1%
1520-1559
<1%
1560-1599
<1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's X posting pace through mid-May has created a tight race among mid-range buckets on the full-month market, with 840-879 tweets currently leading at 11.4% implied probability. Traders are weighing his recent 15-to-20 daily average—fueled by Tesla and SpaceX updates plus meme-driven engagement—against historical swings that often dip during intensive executive stretches or platform algorithm tweaks. Key differentiators include the potential for late-month viral spikes from controversies or product announcements versus steadier but lower output in quieter periods, a pattern seen in prior high-volume months. With roughly two weeks left and no dominant frontrunner, the spread underscores how sudden cultural moments or business developments could still shift the final tally before May 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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