Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,700,997 Vol.
$1,700,997 Vol.
May 6, 2026
<40
Yes
40-64
No
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,700,997 Vol.
$1,700,997 Vol.
May 6, 2026
<40
$565,000 Vol.
Yes
40-64
$288,028 Vol.
No
65-89
$375,994 Vol.
No
90-114
$214,682 Vol.
No
115-139
$104,206 Vol.
No
140-164
$52,859 Vol.
No
165-189
$26,195 Vol.
No
190-214
$20,099 Vol.
No
215-239
$23,840 Vol.
No
240+
$30,094 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,700,997End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,700,997End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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