Renewed large-scale fighting erupted in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in late September 2026, with Tigray People’s Liberation Front forces and allied groups seizing airports and clashing with federal troops across Tigray, Afar, and Amhara. Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea of providing financial and logistical support to these opposition alliances, claims Asmara denied while expressing concern over Addis Ababa’s push for Red Sea access via the Eritrean port of Assab. Eritrea placed forces on heightened alert amid fears that border-area escalation could draw it directly into the conflict. These developments, layered on shifting alliances since the 2022 Pretoria agreement and Sudan’s ongoing war, have raised risks of wider regional spillover without confirmed cross-border Eritrean military operations into Ethiopia. Diplomatic back-channel efforts and restraint signals from Ethiopian federal forces remain key variables for traders assessing invasion timelines.