Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military facilities on larger or more strategically positioned islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Kharg, Abu Musa, and Greater Tunb to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or diplomatic shifts affecting Farsi Island have occurred, consistent with historical patterns where Iran has retained its Gulf islands despite sustained pressure. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 stay near 1-2 percent, reflecting the high barriers to rapid territorial change through airstrikes or sanctions alone, with any resolution hinging on official statements or credible reporting of altered authority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$198,462 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$198,462 Vol.
September 30
$21,191 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military facilities on larger or more strategically positioned islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Kharg, Abu Musa, and Greater Tunb to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or diplomatic shifts affecting Farsi Island have occurred, consistent with historical patterns where Iran has retained its Gulf islands despite sustained pressure. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 stay near 1-2 percent, reflecting the high barriers to rapid territorial change through airstrikes or sanctions alone, with any resolution hinging on official statements or credible reporting of altered authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$198,462End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military facilities on larger or more strategically positioned islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Kharg, Abu Musa, and Greater Tunb to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or diplomatic shifts affecting Farsi Island have occurred, consistent with historical patterns where Iran has retained its Gulf islands despite sustained pressure. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 stay near 1-2 percent, reflecting the high barriers to rapid territorial change through airstrikes or sanctions alone, with any resolution hinging on official statements or credible reporting of altered authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$198,462End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military facilities on larger or more strategically positioned islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Kharg, Abu Musa, and Greater Tunb to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or diplomatic shifts affecting Farsi Island have occurred, consistent with historical patterns where Iran has retained its Gulf islands despite sustained pressure. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 stay near 1-2 percent, reflecting the high barriers to rapid territorial change through airstrikes or sanctions alone, with any resolution hinging on official statements or credible reporting of altered authority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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