The tight trader consensus around a narrow victory for either Bale Dalton or Ryan Elijah in Florida’s 7th Congressional District stems from the open-seat dynamics following the August primaries, where Dalton prevailed in the Democratic contest and Elijah defeated the ethics-scrutinized incumbent Cory Mills on the Republican side. Forecasts from outlets including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s fundamentals and modest projected margins near 1-3 points. With no public polling released since the primaries and roughly six weeks until the November 3 general election, market pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout among independents, the impact of national conditions on this suburban Orlando-area seat, and whether either campaign can expand its base beyond core voters. Late developments such as candidate debates or spending surges could shift the narrow margin buckets currently favored by traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 3-6% 14%
Republican 12-15% 14%
Republican 6-9% 12.7%
Republican 3-6% 11.4%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Republican 18%+
5%
Republican 15-18%
4%
Republican 12-15%
14%
Republican 9-12%
4%
Republican 6-9%
13%
Republican 3-6%
26%
Republican 0-3%
13%
Democrat 0-3%
16%
Democrat 3-6%
14%
Democrat 6%+
11%
Democrat 3-6% 14%
Republican 12-15% 14%
Republican 6-9% 12.7%
Republican 3-6% 11.4%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Republican 18%+
$101 Vol.
5%
Republican 15-18%
$66 Vol.
4%
Republican 12-15%
$399 Vol.
14%
Republican 9-12%
$193 Vol.
4%
Republican 6-9%
$126 Vol.
13%
Republican 3-6%
$112 Vol.
26%
Republican 0-3%
$85 Vol.
13%
Democrat 0-3%
$112 Vol.
16%
Democrat 3-6%
$524 Vol.
14%
Democrat 6%+
$492 Vol.
11%
The 2026 FL-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight trader consensus around a narrow victory for either Bale Dalton or Ryan Elijah in Florida’s 7th Congressional District stems from the open-seat dynamics following the August primaries, where Dalton prevailed in the Democratic contest and Elijah defeated the ethics-scrutinized incumbent Cory Mills on the Republican side. Forecasts from outlets including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s fundamentals and modest projected margins near 1-3 points. With no public polling released since the primaries and roughly six weeks until the November 3 general election, market pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout among independents, the impact of national conditions on this suburban Orlando-area seat, and whether either campaign can expand its base beyond core voters. Late developments such as candidate debates or spending surges could shift the narrow margin buckets currently favored by traders.
The 2026 FL-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,210End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 FL-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight trader consensus around a narrow victory for either Bale Dalton or Ryan Elijah in Florida’s 7th Congressional District stems from the open-seat dynamics following the August primaries, where Dalton prevailed in the Democratic contest and Elijah defeated the ethics-scrutinized incumbent Cory Mills on the Republican side. Forecasts from outlets including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s fundamentals and modest projected margins near 1-3 points. With no public polling released since the primaries and roughly six weeks until the November 3 general election, market pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout among independents, the impact of national conditions on this suburban Orlando-area seat, and whether either campaign can expand its base beyond core voters. Late developments such as candidate debates or spending surges could shift the narrow margin buckets currently favored by traders.
The 2026 FL-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,210End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight trader consensus around a narrow victory for either Bale Dalton or Ryan Elijah in Florida’s 7th Congressional District stems from the open-seat dynamics following the August primaries, where Dalton prevailed in the Democratic contest and Elijah defeated the ethics-scrutinized incumbent Cory Mills on the Republican side. Forecasts from outlets including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s fundamentals and modest projected margins near 1-3 points. With no public polling released since the primaries and roughly six weeks until the November 3 general election, market pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout among independents, the impact of national conditions on this suburban Orlando-area seat, and whether either campaign can expand its base beyond core voters. Late developments such as candidate debates or spending surges could shift the narrow margin buckets currently favored by traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions