Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over Strait of Hormuz navigation rights have intensified focus on Iranian islands including Hengam, located near Qeshm and serving as a forward naval and missile outpost. US strikes in July 2026 targeted Hengam alongside command centers and oil infrastructure on Kharg, aiming to degrade Tehran’s ability to restrict tanker traffic. Iran has responded with counterstrikes and continued assertions of sovereignty through IRGC operations and new transit rules, while diplomatic proposals between Tehran and Oman seek alternative management arrangements. Trader assessments reflect uncertainty around whether sustained aerial or amphibious pressure could shift de facto control before any resolution date, balanced against Iran’s historical success defending Gulf islands and the risk of broader escalation or negotiated de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$120,915 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$120,915 Vol.
August 31
$93,367 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over Strait of Hormuz navigation rights have intensified focus on Iranian islands including Hengam, located near Qeshm and serving as a forward naval and missile outpost. US strikes in July 2026 targeted Hengam alongside command centers and oil infrastructure on Kharg, aiming to degrade Tehran’s ability to restrict tanker traffic. Iran has responded with counterstrikes and continued assertions of sovereignty through IRGC operations and new transit rules, while diplomatic proposals between Tehran and Oman seek alternative management arrangements. Trader assessments reflect uncertainty around whether sustained aerial or amphibious pressure could shift de facto control before any resolution date, balanced against Iran’s historical success defending Gulf islands and the risk of broader escalation or negotiated de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$120,915End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over Strait of Hormuz navigation rights have intensified focus on Iranian islands including Hengam, located near Qeshm and serving as a forward naval and missile outpost. US strikes in July 2026 targeted Hengam alongside command centers and oil infrastructure on Kharg, aiming to degrade Tehran’s ability to restrict tanker traffic. Iran has responded with counterstrikes and continued assertions of sovereignty through IRGC operations and new transit rules, while diplomatic proposals between Tehran and Oman seek alternative management arrangements. Trader assessments reflect uncertainty around whether sustained aerial or amphibious pressure could shift de facto control before any resolution date, balanced against Iran’s historical success defending Gulf islands and the risk of broader escalation or negotiated de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$120,915End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over Strait of Hormuz navigation rights have intensified focus on Iranian islands including Hengam, located near Qeshm and serving as a forward naval and missile outpost. US strikes in July 2026 targeted Hengam alongside command centers and oil infrastructure on Kharg, aiming to degrade Tehran’s ability to restrict tanker traffic. Iran has responded with counterstrikes and continued assertions of sovereignty through IRGC operations and new transit rules, while diplomatic proposals between Tehran and Oman seek alternative management arrangements. Trader assessments reflect uncertainty around whether sustained aerial or amphibious pressure could shift de facto control before any resolution date, balanced against Iran’s historical success defending Gulf islands and the risk of broader escalation or negotiated de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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