Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS guidance, indicate a maximum temperature in Moscow on October 4 near 12–13°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds, and minimal precipitation. This aligns with the climatological average high of 12.1°C and positions 12°C and 13°C as the leading market-implied outcomes. Cooler overnight lows near 3–5°C and stable high pressure limit daytime warming, while model runs show little spread in peak values. Final resolution will depend on official station observations, with any late forecast adjustments from updated model cycles potentially shifting probabilities in the final hours.