National Weather Service observations from New York City stations, including Central Park, recorded a daily maximum of 84–85°F on August 18 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge that delivered mostly sunny skies, light northwest winds, and moderate late-summer humidity. These conditions aligned closely with model consensus and typical climatological baselines for mid-August, producing the market-implied outcome at 100% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects real capital backing verified data from official monitoring networks rather than forecasts alone. Realistic challenges remain limited but could include station-specific microclimate discrepancies or post-event data revisions by the National Weather Service, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary readings are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 18?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 18?
84-85°F 100.0%
75°F or below <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$210,827 Vol.
$210,827 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
75°F or below
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
Yes
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94°F or higher
No
84-85°F 100.0%
75°F or below <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$210,827 Vol.
$210,827 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
75°F or below
$17,697 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$39,120 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$9,872 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$50,716 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$22,198 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$19,795 Vol.
Yes
86-87°F
$15,227 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$12,524 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$11,627 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$11,764 Vol.
No
94°F or higher
$286 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations from New York City stations, including Central Park, recorded a daily maximum of 84–85°F on August 18 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge that delivered mostly sunny skies, light northwest winds, and moderate late-summer humidity. These conditions aligned closely with model consensus and typical climatological baselines for mid-August, producing the market-implied outcome at 100% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects real capital backing verified data from official monitoring networks rather than forecasts alone. Realistic challenges remain limited but could include station-specific microclimate discrepancies or post-event data revisions by the National Weather Service, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary readings are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$210,827End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations from New York City stations, including Central Park, recorded a daily maximum of 84–85°F on August 18 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge that delivered mostly sunny skies, light northwest winds, and moderate late-summer humidity. These conditions aligned closely with model consensus and typical climatological baselines for mid-August, producing the market-implied outcome at 100% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects real capital backing verified data from official monitoring networks rather than forecasts alone. Realistic challenges remain limited but could include station-specific microclimate discrepancies or post-event data revisions by the National Weather Service, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary readings are confirmed.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$210,827End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service observations from New York City stations, including Central Park, recorded a daily maximum of 84–85°F on August 18 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge that delivered mostly sunny skies, light northwest winds, and moderate late-summer humidity. These conditions aligned closely with model consensus and typical climatological baselines for mid-August, producing the market-implied outcome at 100% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects real capital backing verified data from official monitoring networks rather than forecasts alone. Realistic challenges remain limited but could include station-specific microclimate discrepancies or post-event data revisions by the National Weather Service, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary readings are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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