Current forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and numerical models indicate Sao Paulo highs on July 20 will likely reach 27–28°C, aligning with the market's leading 28°C outcome at 49% implied probability. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where average July maxima hover near 23–26°C, but recent model runs show modest warming from northerly flow and clearer skies boosting daytime temperatures. Uncertainties in exact peak readings stem from local urban heat effects and minor forecast adjustments, with resolution hinging on official station data. Traders appear to weigh historical July extremes and ensemble consensus when positioning around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 20?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 20?
27°C 56%
28°C 26%
26°C 18%
29°C 2.7%
NEW
$11,421 Vol.
NEW
$11,421 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
18%
27°C
56%
28°C
26%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 56%
28°C 26%
26°C 18%
29°C 2.7%
NEW
$11,421 Vol.
NEW
$11,421 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
21°C or below
$200 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$301 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$336 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$750 Vol.
1%
25°C
$2,585 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,389 Vol.
18%
27°C
$1,067 Vol.
56%
28°C
$1,900 Vol.
26%
29°C
$2,015 Vol.
3%
30°C
$402 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and numerical models indicate Sao Paulo highs on July 20 will likely reach 27–28°C, aligning with the market's leading 28°C outcome at 49% implied probability. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where average July maxima hover near 23–26°C, but recent model runs show modest warming from northerly flow and clearer skies boosting daytime temperatures. Uncertainties in exact peak readings stem from local urban heat effects and minor forecast adjustments, with resolution hinging on official station data. Traders appear to weigh historical July extremes and ensemble consensus when positioning around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 18, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,421End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and numerical models indicate Sao Paulo highs on July 20 will likely reach 27–28°C, aligning with the market's leading 28°C outcome at 49% implied probability. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where average July maxima hover near 23–26°C, but recent model runs show modest warming from northerly flow and clearer skies boosting daytime temperatures. Uncertainties in exact peak readings stem from local urban heat effects and minor forecast adjustments, with resolution hinging on official station data. Traders appear to weigh historical July extremes and ensemble consensus when positioning around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,421End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and numerical models indicate Sao Paulo highs on July 20 will likely reach 27–28°C, aligning with the market's leading 28°C outcome at 49% implied probability. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where average July maxima hover near 23–26°C, but recent model runs show modest warming from northerly flow and clearer skies boosting daytime temperatures. Uncertainties in exact peak readings stem from local urban heat effects and minor forecast adjustments, with resolution hinging on official station data. Traders appear to weigh historical July extremes and ensemble consensus when positioning around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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