Ongoing US-Iran military tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, intensified since late February 2026, form the core driver of trader assessments on whether Hormuz Island will shift from Iranian control. Iran has asserted authority through IRGC naval operations, transit restrictions, and checkpoints near islands including Hormuz, while facing US naval blockades, strikes on coastal missile sites, and escort operations that have disrupted Iranian logistics. A brief April ceasefire and June memorandum on safe passage collapsed amid renewed attacks on shipping and mutual accusations of violations, with both sides claiming de facto management as of mid-August. Diplomatic efforts, including mediated talks, and potential further strikes or agreements on island administration remain key variables within typical resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$61,543 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$61,543 Vol.
August 31
$49,806 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, intensified since late February 2026, form the core driver of trader assessments on whether Hormuz Island will shift from Iranian control. Iran has asserted authority through IRGC naval operations, transit restrictions, and checkpoints near islands including Hormuz, while facing US naval blockades, strikes on coastal missile sites, and escort operations that have disrupted Iranian logistics. A brief April ceasefire and June memorandum on safe passage collapsed amid renewed attacks on shipping and mutual accusations of violations, with both sides claiming de facto management as of mid-August. Diplomatic efforts, including mediated talks, and potential further strikes or agreements on island administration remain key variables within typical resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$61,543End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, intensified since late February 2026, form the core driver of trader assessments on whether Hormuz Island will shift from Iranian control. Iran has asserted authority through IRGC naval operations, transit restrictions, and checkpoints near islands including Hormuz, while facing US naval blockades, strikes on coastal missile sites, and escort operations that have disrupted Iranian logistics. A brief April ceasefire and June memorandum on safe passage collapsed amid renewed attacks on shipping and mutual accusations of violations, with both sides claiming de facto management as of mid-August. Diplomatic efforts, including mediated talks, and potential further strikes or agreements on island administration remain key variables within typical resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,543End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, intensified since late February 2026, form the core driver of trader assessments on whether Hormuz Island will shift from Iranian control. Iran has asserted authority through IRGC naval operations, transit restrictions, and checkpoints near islands including Hormuz, while facing US naval blockades, strikes on coastal missile sites, and escort operations that have disrupted Iranian logistics. A brief April ceasefire and June memorandum on safe passage collapsed amid renewed attacks on shipping and mutual accusations of violations, with both sides claiming de facto management as of mid-August. Diplomatic efforts, including mediated talks, and potential further strikes or agreements on island administration remain key variables within typical resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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