Recent strength in US economic growth, surging demand for capital tied to AI infrastructure buildout, and elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to a 5.34% intraday peak on October 1—its highest since 2002—before settling near 5.27%. This marks the largest quarterly yield increase in over three decades, reflecting reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing and a shift toward additional policy tightening. Softer-than-expected August core PCE data offered limited relief, while the September jobs report and October 27–28 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields extend higher or stabilize within the current elevated range.