Figure AI’s ongoing livestream endurance test of its F.03 humanoid robots sorting packages autonomously stands as the central driver behind the market’s 68.5% implied probability for a 200-hour-plus run without failure. Three units have already logged more than 50 continuous hours at human parity speeds using the Helix-02 neural network and fault-tolerant Vulcan controller, far exceeding the original eight-hour target with zero interventions. April’s 24-fold manufacturing ramp to one robot per hour, supported by over 1,250 cumulative runtime hours and prior stress testing, has bolstered trader confidence in high mean-time-between-failures for these autonomous systems. Lingering questions around gripper wear and scheduled battery swaps sustain the 20% odds on the 100-200-hour bracket ahead of the May 21 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated200h+ 69%
100-200h 21%
50-100h 8%
$68,981 Vol.
$68,981 Vol.
May 21, 2026
50-100h
8%
100-200h
21%
200h+
69%
200h+ 69%
100-200h 21%
50-100h 8%
$68,981 Vol.
$68,981 Vol.
May 21, 2026
50-100h
$3,954 Vol.
8%
100-200h
$2,628 Vol.
21%
200h+
$10,594 Vol.
69%
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Figure AI’s ongoing livestream endurance test of its F.03 humanoid robots sorting packages autonomously stands as the central driver behind the market’s 68.5% implied probability for a 200-hour-plus run without failure. Three units have already logged more than 50 continuous hours at human parity speeds using the Helix-02 neural network and fault-tolerant Vulcan controller, far exceeding the original eight-hour target with zero interventions. April’s 24-fold manufacturing ramp to one robot per hour, supported by over 1,250 cumulative runtime hours and prior stress testing, has bolstered trader confidence in high mean-time-between-failures for these autonomous systems. Lingering questions around gripper wear and scheduled battery swaps sustain the 20% odds on the 100-200-hour bracket ahead of the May 21 resolution.
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$68,981End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Figure AI’s ongoing livestream endurance test of its F.03 humanoid robots sorting packages autonomously stands as the central driver behind the market’s 68.5% implied probability for a 200-hour-plus run without failure. Three units have already logged more than 50 continuous hours at human parity speeds using the Helix-02 neural network and fault-tolerant Vulcan controller, far exceeding the original eight-hour target with zero interventions. April’s 24-fold manufacturing ramp to one robot per hour, supported by over 1,250 cumulative runtime hours and prior stress testing, has bolstered trader confidence in high mean-time-between-failures for these autonomous systems. Lingering questions around gripper wear and scheduled battery swaps sustain the 20% odds on the 100-200-hour bracket ahead of the May 21 resolution.
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure.
Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred.
If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe.
If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$68,981End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Figure AI’s ongoing livestream endurance test of its F.03 humanoid robots sorting packages autonomously stands as the central driver behind the market’s 68.5% implied probability for a 200-hour-plus run without failure. Three units have already logged more than 50 continuous hours at human parity speeds using the Helix-02 neural network and fault-tolerant Vulcan controller, far exceeding the original eight-hour target with zero interventions. April’s 24-fold manufacturing ramp to one robot per hour, supported by over 1,250 cumulative runtime hours and prior stress testing, has bolstered trader confidence in high mean-time-between-failures for these autonomous systems. Lingering questions around gripper wear and scheduled battery swaps sustain the 20% odds on the 100-200-hour bracket ahead of the May 21 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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