How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 11?
$190,221 Vol.
0 97.8%
1 2.4%
3 <1%
2 <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
0
$76,012 Vol.
98%
0
$76,012 Vol.
98%
1
$69,849 Vol.
2%
1
$69,849 Vol.
2%
2
$14,506 Vol.
1%
2
$14,506 Vol.
1%
3
$8,440 Vol.
1%
3
$8,440 Vol.
1%
4
$4,725 Vol.
<1%
4
$4,725 Vol.
<1%
5
$8,275 Vol.
<1%
5
$8,275 Vol.
<1%
>5
$8,414 Vol.
<1%
>5
$8,414 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and January 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Created At: Jan 5, 2026, 7:14 PM UTC
Volume
$190,221End Date
Jan 11, 2026Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 7:14 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$190,221 Vol.
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 11?
0 97.8%
1 2.4%
3 <1%
2 <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
0
$76,012 Vol.
98%
1
$69,849 Vol.
2%
2
$14,506 Vol.
1%
3
$8,440 Vol.
1%
4
$4,725 Vol.
<1%
5
$8,275 Vol.
<1%
>5
$8,414 Vol.
<1%
About
Volume
$190,221End Date
Jan 11, 2026Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 7:14 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
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