Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 18?

$12,520 Vol.

0 43%

1 38%

2 15%

3 2.8%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and January 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$12,520
End Date
Jan 18, 2026
Created At
Jan 9, 2026, 5:51 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.

$12,520 Vol.

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 18?

0 43%

1 38%

2 15%

3 2.8%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

0

$4,811 Vol.

43%

1

$1,570 Vol.

38%

2

$633 Vol.

15%

3

$1,873 Vol.

3%

4

$1,050 Vol.

1%

5

$846 Vol.

1%

>5

$1,737 Vol.

1%

About

Volume
$12,520
End Date
Jan 18, 2026
Created At
Jan 9, 2026, 5:51 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.