Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$13,675,890 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
7%
June 30
13%
December 31
34%
$13,675,890 Vol.
May 31
$1,991,933 Vol.
7%
June 30
$1,089,944 Vol.
13%
December 31
$2,398,133 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$13,675,890End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,675,890End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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