The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process under Iran's constitution, resulting in the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader. Mojtaba has issued only written statements and has not appeared publicly since assuming the role, prompting assessments that authority has shifted toward Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders such as Ahmad Vahidi and figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in his elected position and recently held a meeting with the new supreme leader to project institutional cohesion amid ongoing military tensions. These dynamics, including the decimation of prior clerical and military ranks during the conflict, inform trader views on whether additional leadership transitions could occur by key deadlines, with scheduled diplomatic or escalation events in the coming months serving as potential catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$13,692,479 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
6%
June 30
13%
December 31
34%
$13,692,479 Vol.
May 31
$2,001,641 Vol.
6%
June 30
$1,096,823 Vol.
13%
December 31
$2,398,133 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process under Iran's constitution, resulting in the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader. Mojtaba has issued only written statements and has not appeared publicly since assuming the role, prompting assessments that authority has shifted toward Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders such as Ahmad Vahidi and figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in his elected position and recently held a meeting with the new supreme leader to project institutional cohesion amid ongoing military tensions. These dynamics, including the decimation of prior clerical and military ranks during the conflict, inform trader views on whether additional leadership transitions could occur by key deadlines, with scheduled diplomatic or escalation events in the coming months serving as potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Volume
$13,692,479End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process under Iran's constitution, resulting in the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader. Mojtaba has issued only written statements and has not appeared publicly since assuming the role, prompting assessments that authority has shifted toward Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders such as Ahmad Vahidi and figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in his elected position and recently held a meeting with the new supreme leader to project institutional cohesion amid ongoing military tensions. These dynamics, including the decimation of prior clerical and military ranks during the conflict, inform trader views on whether additional leadership transitions could occur by key deadlines, with scheduled diplomatic or escalation events in the coming months serving as potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,692,479End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process under Iran's constitution, resulting in the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader. Mojtaba has issued only written statements and has not appeared publicly since assuming the role, prompting assessments that authority has shifted toward Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders such as Ahmad Vahidi and figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in his elected position and recently held a meeting with the new supreme leader to project institutional cohesion amid ongoing military tensions. These dynamics, including the decimation of prior clerical and military ranks during the conflict, inform trader views on whether additional leadership transitions could occur by key deadlines, with scheduled diplomatic or escalation events in the coming months serving as potential catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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