Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a low near 9°C for Beijing on September 29 under clearing skies and northerly winds, favoring the 11°C-or-below outcome. Recent convective activity and a strengthening high-pressure system have shifted flow from southerly to northwest, advecting cooler continental air and reducing overnight humidity. Radiative cooling under mostly clear conditions should enhance the diurnal range, consistent with late-September climatology when Beijing averages lows near 14°C but experiences sharp drops behind cold fronts. Model consensus supports this trajectory, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could raise the minimum into the low teens. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will clarify any adjustments to wind or boundary-layer mixing.