Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high pressure and persistent northeasterly flow over Istanbul, supporting overnight lows near 19–21°C on September 9 amid mostly clear skies and moderate humidity. These conditions favor limited radiative cooling under light winds, consistent with September climatology where average minimums range 17–20°C. The closely matched market probabilities across 16–26°C bins reflect remaining uncertainty in exact minimums, driven by potential minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer moisture that could alter cooling rates by 2–3°C. Updated model runs and official observations closer to the date will refine these estimates for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 9?
26°C or higher 69%
16°C or below 59%
19°C 50%
20°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
16°C or below
59%
17°C
49%
18°C
49%
19°C
50%
20°C
50%
21°C
50%
22°C
27%
23°C
50%
24°C
50%
25°C
50%
26°C or higher
69%
26°C or higher 69%
16°C or below 59%
19°C 50%
20°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
59%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
50%
20°C
$0 Vol.
50%
21°C
$0 Vol.
50%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high pressure and persistent northeasterly flow over Istanbul, supporting overnight lows near 19–21°C on September 9 amid mostly clear skies and moderate humidity. These conditions favor limited radiative cooling under light winds, consistent with September climatology where average minimums range 17–20°C. The closely matched market probabilities across 16–26°C bins reflect remaining uncertainty in exact minimums, driven by potential minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer moisture that could alter cooling rates by 2–3°C. Updated model runs and official observations closer to the date will refine these estimates for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high pressure and persistent northeasterly flow over Istanbul, supporting overnight lows near 19–21°C on September 9 amid mostly clear skies and moderate humidity. These conditions favor limited radiative cooling under light winds, consistent with September climatology where average minimums range 17–20°C. The closely matched market probabilities across 16–26°C bins reflect remaining uncertainty in exact minimums, driven by potential minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer moisture that could alter cooling rates by 2–3°C. Updated model runs and official observations closer to the date will refine these estimates for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high pressure and persistent northeasterly flow over Istanbul, supporting overnight lows near 19–21°C on September 9 amid mostly clear skies and moderate humidity. These conditions favor limited radiative cooling under light winds, consistent with September climatology where average minimums range 17–20°C. The closely matched market probabilities across 16–26°C bins reflect remaining uncertainty in exact minimums, driven by potential minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer moisture that could alter cooling rates by 2–3°C. Updated model runs and official observations closer to the date will refine these estimates for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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