Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show substantial spread in overnight radiative cooling for New York City on July 23, with ensemble lows clustered between 62–70°F. A weak frontal boundary and variable low-level moisture are limiting clear-sky conditions that would otherwise drive temperatures toward seasonal normals near 69°F, while subtle differences in wind direction affect advection of cooler maritime air. This genuine forecast uncertainty keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around the 64–67°F and 68–69°F bins, each near 36 percent. Traders are watching the next NWS update and 00Z model suite for any tightening of dewpoint or cloud-cover guidance that could shift the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 23?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 23?
66-67°F 34%
68-69°F 27%
64-65°F 16%
70-71°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
34%
68-69°F
27%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
1%
66-67°F 34%
68-69°F 27%
64-65°F 16%
70-71°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
55°F or below
$180 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$182 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$86 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$121 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$212 Vol.
3%
64-65°F
$66 Vol.
16%
66-67°F
$1,738 Vol.
34%
68-69°F
$73 Vol.
27%
70-71°F
$116 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$79 Vol.
1%
74°F or higher
$237 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show substantial spread in overnight radiative cooling for New York City on July 23, with ensemble lows clustered between 62–70°F. A weak frontal boundary and variable low-level moisture are limiting clear-sky conditions that would otherwise drive temperatures toward seasonal normals near 69°F, while subtle differences in wind direction affect advection of cooler maritime air. This genuine forecast uncertainty keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around the 64–67°F and 68–69°F bins, each near 36 percent. Traders are watching the next NWS update and 00Z model suite for any tightening of dewpoint or cloud-cover guidance that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,088End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show substantial spread in overnight radiative cooling for New York City on July 23, with ensemble lows clustered between 62–70°F. A weak frontal boundary and variable low-level moisture are limiting clear-sky conditions that would otherwise drive temperatures toward seasonal normals near 69°F, while subtle differences in wind direction affect advection of cooler maritime air. This genuine forecast uncertainty keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around the 64–67°F and 68–69°F bins, each near 36 percent. Traders are watching the next NWS update and 00Z model suite for any tightening of dewpoint or cloud-cover guidance that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,088End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show substantial spread in overnight radiative cooling for New York City on July 23, with ensemble lows clustered between 62–70°F. A weak frontal boundary and variable low-level moisture are limiting clear-sky conditions that would otherwise drive temperatures toward seasonal normals near 69°F, while subtle differences in wind direction affect advection of cooler maritime air. This genuine forecast uncertainty keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around the 64–67°F and 68–69°F bins, each near 36 percent. Traders are watching the next NWS update and 00Z model suite for any tightening of dewpoint or cloud-cover guidance that could shift the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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