Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo's July 14 minimum will likely fall near 25°C, consistent with historical July baselines of 22–25°C under typical summer humidity and light winds. Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected across Japan support the elevated 30°C-or-higher outcome priced at 44%, while cloud cover, urban heat-island effects, and radiative cooling rates create uncertainty around exact thresholds. Model consensus shows limited overnight cooling potential amid high dew points, with fresh JMA updates and ensemble runs likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?
25°C 97.8%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
NEW
$11,111 Vol.
NEW
$11,111 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
98%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 97.8%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
NEW
$11,111 Vol.
NEW
$11,111 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
20°C or below
$288 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$403 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$564 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,634 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,246 Vol.
1%
25°C
$2,274 Vol.
98%
26°C
$1,910 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$694 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,090 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$407 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$601 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo's July 14 minimum will likely fall near 25°C, consistent with historical July baselines of 22–25°C under typical summer humidity and light winds. Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected across Japan support the elevated 30°C-or-higher outcome priced at 44%, while cloud cover, urban heat-island effects, and radiative cooling rates create uncertainty around exact thresholds. Model consensus shows limited overnight cooling potential amid high dew points, with fresh JMA updates and ensemble runs likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$11,111End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo's July 14 minimum will likely fall near 25°C, consistent with historical July baselines of 22–25°C under typical summer humidity and light winds. Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected across Japan support the elevated 30°C-or-higher outcome priced at 44%, while cloud cover, urban heat-island effects, and radiative cooling rates create uncertainty around exact thresholds. Model consensus shows limited overnight cooling potential amid high dew points, with fresh JMA updates and ensemble runs likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,111End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo's July 14 minimum will likely fall near 25°C, consistent with historical July baselines of 22–25°C under typical summer humidity and light winds. Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected across Japan support the elevated 30°C-or-higher outcome priced at 44%, while cloud cover, urban heat-island effects, and radiative cooling rates create uncertainty around exact thresholds. Model consensus shows limited overnight cooling potential amid high dew points, with fresh JMA updates and ensemble runs likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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