Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a minimum near 24°C for Tokyo on July 29 under mostly cloudy skies with possible scattered showers, aligning with seasonal July norms of 22–25°C overnight lows. Trader consensus clusters around 22–25°C because short-range model runs show modest sensitivity to cloud cover and humidity levels, which can suppress radiative cooling by 1–2°C, while any clearer intervals or reduced moisture might allow temperatures to dip toward 21–22°C. Historical JMA data confirm typical variability of ±2°C around the mean, and updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely sharpen the distribution ahead of the 29th.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 29?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 29?
24°C 36%
25°C 36%
26°C 14%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
20°C or below
4%
21°C
5%
22°C
7%
23°C
7%
24°C
36%
25°C
36%
26°C
14%
27°C
6%
28°C
5%
29°C
8%
30°C or higher
1%
24°C 36%
25°C 36%
26°C 14%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
20°C or below
$62 Vol.
4%
21°C
$94 Vol.
5%
22°C
$46 Vol.
7%
23°C
$106 Vol.
7%
24°C
$142 Vol.
36%
25°C
$91 Vol.
36%
26°C
$33 Vol.
14%
27°C
$15 Vol.
6%
28°C
$10 Vol.
5%
29°C
$10 Vol.
8%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a minimum near 24°C for Tokyo on July 29 under mostly cloudy skies with possible scattered showers, aligning with seasonal July norms of 22–25°C overnight lows. Trader consensus clusters around 22–25°C because short-range model runs show modest sensitivity to cloud cover and humidity levels, which can suppress radiative cooling by 1–2°C, while any clearer intervals or reduced moisture might allow temperatures to dip toward 21–22°C. Historical JMA data confirm typical variability of ±2°C around the mean, and updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely sharpen the distribution ahead of the 29th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$613End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a minimum near 24°C for Tokyo on July 29 under mostly cloudy skies with possible scattered showers, aligning with seasonal July norms of 22–25°C overnight lows. Trader consensus clusters around 22–25°C because short-range model runs show modest sensitivity to cloud cover and humidity levels, which can suppress radiative cooling by 1–2°C, while any clearer intervals or reduced moisture might allow temperatures to dip toward 21–22°C. Historical JMA data confirm typical variability of ±2°C around the mean, and updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely sharpen the distribution ahead of the 29th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$613End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a minimum near 24°C for Tokyo on July 29 under mostly cloudy skies with possible scattered showers, aligning with seasonal July norms of 22–25°C overnight lows. Trader consensus clusters around 22–25°C because short-range model runs show modest sensitivity to cloud cover and humidity levels, which can suppress radiative cooling by 1–2°C, while any clearer intervals or reduced moisture might allow temperatures to dip toward 21–22°C. Historical JMA data confirm typical variability of ±2°C around the mean, and updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely sharpen the distribution ahead of the 29th.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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