US-Cuba economic relations remain constrained by the longstanding trade embargo, reinforced by tightened sanctions under the second Trump administration. In January 2026, an executive order designated Cuba a national security threat and authorized measures that restricted third-country oil shipments, triggering a severe fuel blockade and economic crisis on the island. These policies limit US companies’ ability to secure OFAC licenses for commercial operations in Cuba, with no recent diplomatic thaw or legislative changes opening pathways for fast-food franchises. Cuban officials have discussed broader foreign investment rules but have not signaled approvals for American chains, while McDonald’s global expansion plans focus on other markets. This sustained policy environment underpins traders’ strong consensus against an announcement by year-end.