US-Cuba relations feature intensified sanctions, an energy blockade, and designations targeting President Miguel Díaz-Canel and associates since early 2026, following the US military action in Venezuela and indictment of former leader Raúl Castro. Díaz-Canel has publicly rejected external demands on Cuba’s political system, emphasized sovereignty, and pursued limited bilateral talks focused on humanitarian and energy relief, including prisoner releases. No extradition proceedings, arrest warrants, or military operations targeting the sitting Cuban head of state have been reported. Sovereign immunity, Cuba’s institutional position, and the absence of enforcement mechanisms continue to constrain any realistic path to US government custody by year-end, aligning with the low trader-implied probability for that outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$66,096 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
5%
$66,096 Vol.
December 31
$12,028 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.US-Cuba relations feature intensified sanctions, an energy blockade, and designations targeting President Miguel Díaz-Canel and associates since early 2026, following the US military action in Venezuela and indictment of former leader Raúl Castro. Díaz-Canel has publicly rejected external demands on Cuba’s political system, emphasized sovereignty, and pursued limited bilateral talks focused on humanitarian and energy relief, including prisoner releases. No extradition proceedings, arrest warrants, or military operations targeting the sitting Cuban head of state have been reported. Sovereign immunity, Cuba’s institutional position, and the absence of enforcement mechanisms continue to constrain any realistic path to US government custody by year-end, aligning with the low trader-implied probability for that outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$66,096End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.US-Cuba relations feature intensified sanctions, an energy blockade, and designations targeting President Miguel Díaz-Canel and associates since early 2026, following the US military action in Venezuela and indictment of former leader Raúl Castro. Díaz-Canel has publicly rejected external demands on Cuba’s political system, emphasized sovereignty, and pursued limited bilateral talks focused on humanitarian and energy relief, including prisoner releases. No extradition proceedings, arrest warrants, or military operations targeting the sitting Cuban head of state have been reported. Sovereign immunity, Cuba’s institutional position, and the absence of enforcement mechanisms continue to constrain any realistic path to US government custody by year-end, aligning with the low trader-implied probability for that outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$66,096End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Cuba relations feature intensified sanctions, an energy blockade, and designations targeting President Miguel Díaz-Canel and associates since early 2026, following the US military action in Venezuela and indictment of former leader Raúl Castro. Díaz-Canel has publicly rejected external demands on Cuba’s political system, emphasized sovereignty, and pursued limited bilateral talks focused on humanitarian and energy relief, including prisoner releases. No extradition proceedings, arrest warrants, or military operations targeting the sitting Cuban head of state have been reported. Sovereign immunity, Cuba’s institutional position, and the absence of enforcement mechanisms continue to constrain any realistic path to US government custody by year-end, aligning with the low trader-implied probability for that outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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