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icon for MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

icon for MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

$56,507 Vol.

Oct 11, 2026
Polymarket

$56,507 Vol.

Polymarket

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Manny Machado

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Pete Alonso

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This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple players have already cleared 40 home runs in the 2026 MLB season with roughly 10-12 games remaining. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Schwarber lead at 45 apiece, while Junior Caminero sits at 41, and Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, and Pete Alonso each reached exactly 40, the latter doing so with a two-homer game on September 21. Hunter Goodman stands at 39 and remains the closest active threat. These totals reflect sustained power production across the final month, with several contenders posting multi-homer outings amid typical late-season volume and favorable matchups. No major injuries have removed frontrunners from contention in the closing weeks.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$56,507
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple players have already cleared 40 home runs in the 2026 MLB season with roughly 10-12 games remaining. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Schwarber lead at 45 apiece, while Junior Caminero sits at 41, and Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, and Pete Alonso each reached exactly 40, the latter doing so with a two-homer game on September 21. Hunter Goodman stands at 39 and remains the closest active threat. These totals reflect sustained power production across the final month, with several contenders posting multi-homer outings amid typical late-season volume and favorable matchups. No major injuries have removed frontrunners from contention in the closing weeks.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$56,507
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Junior Caminero" at 100%, followed by "Yordan Alvarez" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" has generated $56.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" is "Junior Caminero" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Yordan Alvarez" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.