Vail Resorts (MTN) enters its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release with traders assigning a 71.5% implied probability that results will miss consensus estimates. Persistent adverse weather across the Rockies drove sharp declines in visitation and lift revenue during the core ski season, prompting the company to lower full-year fiscal 2026 guidance in June to net income of $128–162 million and Resort Reported EBITDA of $735–755 million. Early season pass sales for 2026/2027 also fell approximately 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling softer advance commitments. These factors, combined with sequential EPS misses in prior quarters, have shaped the current market-implied odds ahead of the September 28 report.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated26% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
26% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Vail Resorts (MTN) enters its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release with traders assigning a 71.5% implied probability that results will miss consensus estimates. Persistent adverse weather across the Rockies drove sharp declines in visitation and lift revenue during the core ski season, prompting the company to lower full-year fiscal 2026 guidance in June to net income of $128–162 million and Resort Reported EBITDA of $735–755 million. Early season pass sales for 2026/2027 also fell approximately 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling softer advance commitments. These factors, combined with sequential EPS misses in prior quarters, have shaped the current market-implied odds ahead of the September 28 report.
As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$317End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTN/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Vail Resorts (MTN) enters its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release with traders assigning a 71.5% implied probability that results will miss consensus estimates. Persistent adverse weather across the Rockies drove sharp declines in visitation and lift revenue during the core ski season, prompting the company to lower full-year fiscal 2026 guidance in June to net income of $128–162 million and Resort Reported EBITDA of $735–755 million. Early season pass sales for 2026/2027 also fell approximately 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling softer advance commitments. These factors, combined with sequential EPS misses in prior quarters, have shaped the current market-implied odds ahead of the September 28 report.
As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$317End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTN/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...Vail Resorts (MTN) enters its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release with traders assigning a 71.5% implied probability that results will miss consensus estimates. Persistent adverse weather across the Rockies drove sharp declines in visitation and lift revenue during the core ski season, prompting the company to lower full-year fiscal 2026 guidance in June to net income of $128–162 million and Resort Reported EBITDA of $735–755 million. Early season pass sales for 2026/2027 also fell approximately 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling softer advance commitments. These factors, combined with sequential EPS misses in prior quarters, have shaped the current market-implied odds ahead of the September 28 report.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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