Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive and Republican nominee, holds an 86.5% implied probability of carrying the county in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, while Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul sits at 13.5%. Traders price this outcome on Blakeman’s local base and Nassau’s recent Republican shift, including his 12-point 2025 county executive victory in a Democratic-leaning suburb and consistent GOP strength on pocketbook, public safety, and immigration issues. Statewide polls show Hochul’s lead narrowing to single digits among likely voters, yet Nassau remains an outlier where Republican messaging on taxes, crime, and ICE cooperation has outperformed Democratic performance in prior cycles. Minor-party and write-in options trade near even money due to low expected vote share. No major late-breaking developments have altered the county-specific dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Bruce Blakeman (R)
87%
Kathy Hochul (D)
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Bruce Blakeman (R)
$350 Vol.
87%
Kathy Hochul (D)
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Nassau County in the general election for Governor of New York, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive and Republican nominee, holds an 86.5% implied probability of carrying the county in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, while Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul sits at 13.5%. Traders price this outcome on Blakeman’s local base and Nassau’s recent Republican shift, including his 12-point 2025 county executive victory in a Democratic-leaning suburb and consistent GOP strength on pocketbook, public safety, and immigration issues. Statewide polls show Hochul’s lead narrowing to single digits among likely voters, yet Nassau remains an outlier where Republican messaging on taxes, crime, and ICE cooperation has outperformed Democratic performance in prior cycles. Minor-party and write-in options trade near even money due to low expected vote share. No major late-breaking developments have altered the county-specific dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Nassau County in the general election for Governor of New York, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
Volume
$350End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Nassau County in the general election for Governor of New York, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive and Republican nominee, holds an 86.5% implied probability of carrying the county in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, while Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul sits at 13.5%. Traders price this outcome on Blakeman’s local base and Nassau’s recent Republican shift, including his 12-point 2025 county executive victory in a Democratic-leaning suburb and consistent GOP strength on pocketbook, public safety, and immigration issues. Statewide polls show Hochul’s lead narrowing to single digits among likely voters, yet Nassau remains an outlier where Republican messaging on taxes, crime, and ICE cooperation has outperformed Democratic performance in prior cycles. Minor-party and write-in options trade near even money due to low expected vote share. No major late-breaking developments have altered the county-specific dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Nassau County in the general election for Governor of New York, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.
Volume
$350End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive and Republican nominee, holds an 86.5% implied probability of carrying the county in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, while Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul sits at 13.5%. Traders price this outcome on Blakeman’s local base and Nassau’s recent Republican shift, including his 12-point 2025 county executive victory in a Democratic-leaning suburb and consistent GOP strength on pocketbook, public safety, and immigration issues. Statewide polls show Hochul’s lead narrowing to single digits among likely voters, yet Nassau remains an outlier where Republican messaging on taxes, crime, and ICE cooperation has outperformed Democratic performance in prior cycles. Minor-party and write-in options trade near even money due to low expected vote share. No major late-breaking developments have altered the county-specific dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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