Google's repeated delays of the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the market heavily favoring no release by August 31 at 86.2% implied probability. Originally targeted for June after a May 2026 I/O announcement, the frontier large language model has slipped past July deadlines amid extended partner testing and internal refinements, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash reached general availability in July and mid-August. No official statements or credible reports signal an imminent Pro launch before month-end, reinforcing the market's assessment of the August window as unlikely. Traders are monitoring for any surprise enterprise rollout or developer conference updates that could shift the narrow probabilities attached to specific late-August dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by August 31 86.3%
August 26 4.0%
August 27 3.8%
August 31 3.6%
$267,405 Vol.
$267,405 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
August 17
1%
August 18
1%
August 19
1%
August 20
1%
August 21
<1%
August 22
<1%
August 23
1%
August 24
2%
August 25
2%
August 26
4%
August 27
4%
August 28
1%
August 29
<1%
August 30
<1%
August 31
4%
No release by August 31
86%
No release by August 31 86.3%
August 26 4.0%
August 27 3.8%
August 31 3.6%
$267,405 Vol.
$267,405 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
August 17
$3,756 Vol.
1%
August 18
$3,980 Vol.
1%
August 19
$3,146 Vol.
1%
August 20
$2,786 Vol.
1%
August 21
$2,259 Vol.
<1%
August 22
$2,686 Vol.
<1%
August 23
$1,954 Vol.
1%
August 24
$4,463 Vol.
2%
August 25
$5,391 Vol.
2%
August 26
$4,370 Vol.
4%
August 27
$8,567 Vol.
4%
August 28
$4,001 Vol.
1%
August 29
$4,785 Vol.
<1%
August 30
$2,318 Vol.
<1%
August 31
$7,638 Vol.
4%
No release by August 31
$51,114 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays of the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the market heavily favoring no release by August 31 at 86.2% implied probability. Originally targeted for June after a May 2026 I/O announcement, the frontier large language model has slipped past July deadlines amid extended partner testing and internal refinements, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash reached general availability in July and mid-August. No official statements or credible reports signal an imminent Pro launch before month-end, reinforcing the market's assessment of the August window as unlikely. Traders are monitoring for any surprise enterprise rollout or developer conference updates that could shift the narrow probabilities attached to specific late-August dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$267,405End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays of the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the market heavily favoring no release by August 31 at 86.2% implied probability. Originally targeted for June after a May 2026 I/O announcement, the frontier large language model has slipped past July deadlines amid extended partner testing and internal refinements, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash reached general availability in July and mid-August. No official statements or credible reports signal an imminent Pro launch before month-end, reinforcing the market's assessment of the August window as unlikely. Traders are monitoring for any surprise enterprise rollout or developer conference updates that could shift the narrow probabilities attached to specific late-August dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$267,405End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Google's repeated delays of the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the market heavily favoring no release by August 31 at 86.2% implied probability. Originally targeted for June after a May 2026 I/O announcement, the frontier large language model has slipped past July deadlines amid extended partner testing and internal refinements, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash reached general availability in July and mid-August. No official statements or credible reports signal an imminent Pro launch before month-end, reinforcing the market's assessment of the August window as unlikely. Traders are monitoring for any surprise enterprise rollout or developer conference updates that could shift the narrow probabilities attached to specific late-August dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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