Upcoming October 2026 Knesset elections and subsequent coalition negotiations are the primary drivers keeping probabilities for the next National Security Minister tightly clustered near even odds. Current holder Itamar Ben Gvir has signaled interest in the Defense portfolio for his Otzma Yehudit party, potentially freeing the role for Likud figures such as Amir Ohana, Avi Dichter, or Gideon Sa’ar, while other contenders including Yossi Cohen remain in play depending on seat shares and bargaining leverage. The “no appointment by late February” option reflects procedural delays common after votes. Trader consensus embeds these variables without favoring any single path, as historical patterns show portfolios often shift during post-election horse-trading among right-wing partners.