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icon for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Politics·Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

icon for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Politics·Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 13.1%

Save the Children 9.8%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

International Court of Justice 5.4%

Polymarket

$24,439,897 Vol.

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 13.1%

Save the Children 9.8%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

International Court of Justice 5.4%

Polymarket

$24,439,897 Vol.

icon for Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms

$24,552 Vol.

13%

icon for Save the Children

Save the Children

$9,952 Vol.

10%

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$299,749 Vol.

8%

icon for International Court of Justice

International Court of Justice

$916,822 Vol.

5%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$2,055,384 Vol.

5%

icon for Committee to Protect Journalists

Committee to Protect Journalists

$6,509 Vol.

4%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$5,011,856 Vol.

3%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$828,438 Vol.

3%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$790,791 Vol.

2%

icon for Chow Hang-tung

Chow Hang-tung

$14,368 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$689,250 Vol.

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,474,529 Vol.

1%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$642,434 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$1,274,858 Vol.

1%

icon for World Central Kitchen

World Central Kitchen

$3,393 Vol.

1%

icon for Pope Leo XIV

Pope Leo XIV

$823,574 Vol.

1%

icon for Reporters Without Borders

Reporters Without Borders

$3,299 Vol.

1%

icon for Sara Al-Saqqa

Sara Al-Saqqa

$3,762 Vol.

1%

icon for ICRC

ICRC

$3,490 Vol.

1%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,436,411 Vol.

1%

icon for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

$3,117 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$857,345 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$712,544 Vol.

<1%

icon for UNHCR

UNHCR

$4,076 Vol.

<1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$1,199,153 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

$922,591 Vol.

<1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$880,887 Vol.

<1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$1,067,970 Vol.

<1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$1,281,004 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$1,193,415 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hussam Abu Safiya

Hussam Abu Safiya

$4,375 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The Nobel Peace Prize market shows a fragmented field with no clear frontrunner, as traders assess a wide range of humanitarian and diplomatic efforts amid ongoing global conflicts. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms hold the top spot at 13.1% for their on-the-ground aid coordination in a brutal civil war, while Save the Children sits at 9.8% thanks to its sustained work protecting children in crisis zones worldwide. Yulia Navalnaya at 7.5% draws support from her high-profile advocacy following her husband's death, and the International Court of Justice at 5.3% reflects its involvement in major legal proceedings. The tight spread across dozens of candidates highlights how different crises—from Africa to Eastern Europe and the Middle East—compete for attention, with any late-2026 breakthroughs in ceasefires or major initiatives likely to reshape the odds before the October announcement.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$24,439,897
End Date
Apr 1, 2027
Market Opened
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The Nobel Peace Prize market shows a fragmented field with no clear frontrunner, as traders assess a wide range of humanitarian and diplomatic efforts amid ongoing global conflicts. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms hold the top spot at 13.1% for their on-the-ground aid coordination in a brutal civil war, while Save the Children sits at 9.8% thanks to its sustained work protecting children in crisis zones worldwide. Yulia Navalnaya at 7.5% draws support from her high-profile advocacy following her husband's death, and the International Court of Justice at 5.3% reflects its involvement in major legal proceedings. The tight spread across dozens of candidates highlights how different crises—from Africa to Eastern Europe and the Middle East—compete for attention, with any late-2026 breakthroughs in ceasefires or major initiatives likely to reshape the odds before the October announcement.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$24,439,897
End Date
Apr 1, 2027
Market Opened
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms" at 13%, followed by "Save the Children" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" has generated $24.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" is "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Save the Children" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.