North Korea has conducted no publicly detected missile launches in the first half of May 2026, keeping the sub-two outcome in the lead among traders. This lull follows a cluster of short-range ballistic missile firings in April, including multiple tests of upgraded Hwasong-11 variants with cluster munitions that marked the seventh launch series of the year. Regional monitoring by South Korea, Japan, and the United States has reported no new activity amid ongoing U.S.-South Korea joint exercises and UN sanctions pressure. Historical patterns show Pyongyang often spaces provocations, leaving room for tests later in the month that could shift consensus toward two or three days of activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?
<2 69%
2-3 26%
4+ 4.5%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
<2
69%
2-3
26%
4+
5%
<2 69%
2-3 26%
4+ 4.5%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
<2
$1,347 Vol.
69%
2-3
$3,200 Vol.
26%
4+
$516 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted no publicly detected missile launches in the first half of May 2026, keeping the sub-two outcome in the lead among traders. This lull follows a cluster of short-range ballistic missile firings in April, including multiple tests of upgraded Hwasong-11 variants with cluster munitions that marked the seventh launch series of the year. Regional monitoring by South Korea, Japan, and the United States has reported no new activity amid ongoing U.S.-South Korea joint exercises and UN sanctions pressure. Historical patterns show Pyongyang often spaces provocations, leaving room for tests later in the month that could shift consensus toward two or three days of activity.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$5,063End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted no publicly detected missile launches in the first half of May 2026, keeping the sub-two outcome in the lead among traders. This lull follows a cluster of short-range ballistic missile firings in April, including multiple tests of upgraded Hwasong-11 variants with cluster munitions that marked the seventh launch series of the year. Regional monitoring by South Korea, Japan, and the United States has reported no new activity amid ongoing U.S.-South Korea joint exercises and UN sanctions pressure. Historical patterns show Pyongyang often spaces provocations, leaving room for tests later in the month that could shift consensus toward two or three days of activity.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$5,063End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea has conducted no publicly detected missile launches in the first half of May 2026, keeping the sub-two outcome in the lead among traders. This lull follows a cluster of short-range ballistic missile firings in April, including multiple tests of upgraded Hwasong-11 variants with cluster munitions that marked the seventh launch series of the year. Regional monitoring by South Korea, Japan, and the United States has reported no new activity amid ongoing U.S.-South Korea joint exercises and UN sanctions pressure. Historical patterns show Pyongyang often spaces provocations, leaving room for tests later in the month that could shift consensus toward two or three days of activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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