North Korea’s recent constitutional amendments, which redefine its southern border with the Republic of Korea and eliminate prior references to reunification, represent the clearest recent signal that Pyongyang now treats the two states as permanently separate. This shift, paired with continued short-range ballistic missile tests through April 2026 and expanded conventional weapons development, has reinforced trader assessments that a full-scale invasion remains improbable before 2027. South Korea’s strengthened security ties with the United States and ongoing deterrence posture further reduce the likelihood of near-term cross-border aggression, while North Korea’s diplomatic outreach to Russia and China prioritizes economic and military support over immediate conflict. Market pricing of 94 percent for “no” reflects this sustained absence of invasion preparations.