Skip to main content
icon for Bank of Canada decision in June?
World·Global Rates

Bank of Canada decision in June?

icon for Bank of Canada decision in June?
World·Global Rates

Bank of Canada decision in June?

Jun 10

Jul 15

Jun 10

Jul 15

No change 96.0%

Increase 2.7%

25 bps decrease 1.4%

50+ bps decrease <1%

Polymarket

$26,429 Vol.

No change 96.0%

Increase 2.7%

25 bps decrease 1.4%

50+ bps decrease <1%

Polymarket

$26,429 Vol.

50+ bps decrease

$4,584 Vol.

1%

25 bps decrease

$4,363 Vol.

1%

No change

$9,472 Vol.

96%

Increase

$8,011 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25 percent, amid softening labor-market data and offsetting inflation risks, underpins the 96 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. April employment fell 18,000 while the unemployment rate climbed to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP growth registered a moderate 1.7 percent pace, reinforcing expectations that domestic slack will keep monetary policy on hold. Counterbalancing these factors are upward pressures on headline CPI, which rose to 2.4 percent year-over-year in March on higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments, with core measures remaining near 2.2 percent. Traders view these balanced risks as favoring continuity rather than an immediate adjustment. The April CPI release scheduled for May 19 represents the key near-term catalyst that could either solidify the hold or reopen slim odds of a modest cut if downside surprises emerge.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.

If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$26,429
End Date
Jun 10, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25 percent, amid softening labor-market data and offsetting inflation risks, underpins the 96 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. April employment fell 18,000 while the unemployment rate climbed to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP growth registered a moderate 1.7 percent pace, reinforcing expectations that domestic slack will keep monetary policy on hold. Counterbalancing these factors are upward pressures on headline CPI, which rose to 2.4 percent year-over-year in March on higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments, with core measures remaining near 2.2 percent. Traders view these balanced risks as favoring continuity rather than an immediate adjustment. The April CPI release scheduled for May 19 represents the key near-term catalyst that could either solidify the hold or reopen slim odds of a modest cut if downside surprises emerge.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.

If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$26,429
End Date
Jun 10, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Related

icon for Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?

77%
icon for No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?

56%
icon for Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?

Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?

54%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of Canada decision in June?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No change" at 96%, followed by "Increase" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bank of Canada decision in June?" has generated $26.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bank of Canada decision in June?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bank of Canada decision in June?" is "No change" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Increase" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bank of Canada decision in June?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.