Brad Lander secured the Democratic nomination for New York's 10th congressional district by defeating incumbent Daniel Goldman in the June 23, 2026 primary, with final tallies showing Lander above 65 percent of the vote. Trader consensus around a margin exceeding 30 points reflects Lander's established citywide profile as comptroller, endorsements from progressive organizations, and effective mobilization in key Manhattan and Brooklyn precincts within the district. The outcome aligned with broader patterns of incumbent vulnerability in urban Democratic primaries this cycle. Late-arriving absentee or provisional ballots, or any formal recount petitions, represent the primary avenues that could still alter the certified margin, though such adjustments have historically remained modest in similar New York contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLander 30%+ 98.5%
Lander <10% 2.9%
Lander 20–30% 2.7%
Lander 10–20% <1%
$76,090 Vol.
$76,090 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Lander 30%+
99%
Lander 20–30%
3%
Lander 10–20%
<1%
Lander <10%
3%
Other
<1%
Lander 30%+ 98.5%
Lander <10% 2.9%
Lander 20–30% 2.7%
Lander 10–20% <1%
$76,090 Vol.
$76,090 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Lander 30%+
$47,563 Vol.
99%
Lander 20–30%
$9,382 Vol.
3%
Lander 10–20%
$12,598 Vol.
<1%
Lander <10%
$3,360 Vol.
3%
Other
$2,075 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Brad Lander secured the Democratic nomination for New York's 10th congressional district by defeating incumbent Daniel Goldman in the June 23, 2026 primary, with final tallies showing Lander above 65 percent of the vote. Trader consensus around a margin exceeding 30 points reflects Lander's established citywide profile as comptroller, endorsements from progressive organizations, and effective mobilization in key Manhattan and Brooklyn precincts within the district. The outcome aligned with broader patterns of incumbent vulnerability in urban Democratic primaries this cycle. Late-arriving absentee or provisional ballots, or any formal recount petitions, represent the primary avenues that could still alter the certified margin, though such adjustments have historically remained modest in similar New York contests.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 10:04 PM ET
Volume
$76,090End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 10:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Brad Lander secured the Democratic nomination for New York's 10th congressional district by defeating incumbent Daniel Goldman in the June 23, 2026 primary, with final tallies showing Lander above 65 percent of the vote. Trader consensus around a margin exceeding 30 points reflects Lander's established citywide profile as comptroller, endorsements from progressive organizations, and effective mobilization in key Manhattan and Brooklyn precincts within the district. The outcome aligned with broader patterns of incumbent vulnerability in urban Democratic primaries this cycle. Late-arriving absentee or provisional ballots, or any formal recount petitions, represent the primary avenues that could still alter the certified margin, though such adjustments have historically remained modest in similar New York contests.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$76,090End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 10:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brad Lander secured the Democratic nomination for New York's 10th congressional district by defeating incumbent Daniel Goldman in the June 23, 2026 primary, with final tallies showing Lander above 65 percent of the vote. Trader consensus around a margin exceeding 30 points reflects Lander's established citywide profile as comptroller, endorsements from progressive organizations, and effective mobilization in key Manhattan and Brooklyn precincts within the district. The outcome aligned with broader patterns of incumbent vulnerability in urban Democratic primaries this cycle. Late-arriving absentee or provisional ballots, or any formal recount petitions, represent the primary avenues that could still alter the certified margin, though such adjustments have historically remained modest in similar New York contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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