Cait Conley's commanding position in the NY-17 Democratic primary stems from her decisive June 23, 2026, victory, certified at 51.4% against Beth Davidson's 29.0% and lower shares for Effie Phillips-Staley and others, producing a margin exceeding 22 points. Her background as a West Point graduate, Army combat veteran with multiple deployments, and prior roles at the National Security Council and CISA aligned with voter priorities in this swing district, supported by substantial campaign spending and endorsements that consolidated support across the four counties. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome at 98% because official tallies have already confirmed the scale of the win. Late certification adjustments, recounts in specific precincts, or disputes over provisional ballots could theoretically narrow the reported margin, though current vote differentials make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-17 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
NY-17 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Conley 15%+ 98.0%
Conley 5–10% 1.5%
Conley 10–15% <1%
Conley <5% <1%
$54,938 Vol.
$54,938 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Conley 15%+
98%
Conley 10–15%
1%
Conley 5–10%
2%
Conley <5%
<1%
Conley 15%+ 98.0%
Conley 5–10% 1.5%
Conley 10–15% <1%
Conley <5% <1%
$54,938 Vol.
$54,938 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Conley 15%+
$19,275 Vol.
98%
Conley 10–15%
$23,361 Vol.
1%
Conley 5–10%
$4,886 Vol.
2%
Conley <5%
$4,532 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cait Conley's commanding position in the NY-17 Democratic primary stems from her decisive June 23, 2026, victory, certified at 51.4% against Beth Davidson's 29.0% and lower shares for Effie Phillips-Staley and others, producing a margin exceeding 22 points. Her background as a West Point graduate, Army combat veteran with multiple deployments, and prior roles at the National Security Council and CISA aligned with voter priorities in this swing district, supported by substantial campaign spending and endorsements that consolidated support across the four counties. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome at 98% because official tallies have already confirmed the scale of the win. Late certification adjustments, recounts in specific precincts, or disputes over provisional ballots could theoretically narrow the reported margin, though current vote differentials make such shifts unlikely.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ET
Volume
$54,938End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cait Conley's commanding position in the NY-17 Democratic primary stems from her decisive June 23, 2026, victory, certified at 51.4% against Beth Davidson's 29.0% and lower shares for Effie Phillips-Staley and others, producing a margin exceeding 22 points. Her background as a West Point graduate, Army combat veteran with multiple deployments, and prior roles at the National Security Council and CISA aligned with voter priorities in this swing district, supported by substantial campaign spending and endorsements that consolidated support across the four counties. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome at 98% because official tallies have already confirmed the scale of the win. Late certification adjustments, recounts in specific precincts, or disputes over provisional ballots could theoretically narrow the reported margin, though current vote differentials make such shifts unlikely.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$54,938End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cait Conley's commanding position in the NY-17 Democratic primary stems from her decisive June 23, 2026, victory, certified at 51.4% against Beth Davidson's 29.0% and lower shares for Effie Phillips-Staley and others, producing a margin exceeding 22 points. Her background as a West Point graduate, Army combat veteran with multiple deployments, and prior roles at the National Security Council and CISA aligned with voter priorities in this swing district, supported by substantial campaign spending and endorsements that consolidated support across the four counties. Trader consensus prices the 15%+ outcome at 98% because official tallies have already confirmed the scale of the win. Late certification adjustments, recounts in specific precincts, or disputes over provisional ballots could theoretically narrow the reported margin, though current vote differentials make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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