Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for New York's 13th congressional district by a narrow margin of roughly 3.5 percentage points, with final tallies showing her at approximately 48.6-49.4% to his 45.9%. Trader consensus on an outcome under 5% reflects the race's closely contested nature, driven by Chevalier's strong performance among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters alongside endorsements from progressive figures including Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America, while Espaillat retained advantages with lower-income and Hispanic voters. The district's competitive primary dynamics and split voter coalitions produced the tight result. A realistic challenge to the sub-5% assessment would require a successful recount or legal challenge that materially alters certified vote shares, though official results show no such pending factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvila Chevalier <5% 98.0%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 2.2%
Avila Chevalier 10%+ 1.9%
Other <1%
$89,876 Vol.
$89,876 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Avila Chevalier 10%+
2%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
2%
Avila Chevalier <5%
98%
Other
<1%
Avila Chevalier <5% 98.0%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 2.2%
Avila Chevalier 10%+ 1.9%
Other <1%
$89,876 Vol.
$89,876 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Avila Chevalier 10%+
$5,981 Vol.
2%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
$7,521 Vol.
2%
Avila Chevalier <5%
$21,909 Vol.
98%
Other
$2,194 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for New York's 13th congressional district by a narrow margin of roughly 3.5 percentage points, with final tallies showing her at approximately 48.6-49.4% to his 45.9%. Trader consensus on an outcome under 5% reflects the race's closely contested nature, driven by Chevalier's strong performance among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters alongside endorsements from progressive figures including Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America, while Espaillat retained advantages with lower-income and Hispanic voters. The district's competitive primary dynamics and split voter coalitions produced the tight result. A realistic challenge to the sub-5% assessment would require a successful recount or legal challenge that materially alters certified vote shares, though official results show no such pending factors.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ET
Volume
$89,876End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for New York's 13th congressional district by a narrow margin of roughly 3.5 percentage points, with final tallies showing her at approximately 48.6-49.4% to his 45.9%. Trader consensus on an outcome under 5% reflects the race's closely contested nature, driven by Chevalier's strong performance among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters alongside endorsements from progressive figures including Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America, while Espaillat retained advantages with lower-income and Hispanic voters. The district's competitive primary dynamics and split voter coalitions produced the tight result. A realistic challenge to the sub-5% assessment would require a successful recount or legal challenge that materially alters certified vote shares, though official results show no such pending factors.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$89,876End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for New York's 13th congressional district by a narrow margin of roughly 3.5 percentage points, with final tallies showing her at approximately 48.6-49.4% to his 45.9%. Trader consensus on an outcome under 5% reflects the race's closely contested nature, driven by Chevalier's strong performance among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters alongside endorsements from progressive figures including Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America, while Espaillat retained advantages with lower-income and Hispanic voters. The district's competitive primary dynamics and split voter coalitions produced the tight result. A realistic challenge to the sub-5% assessment would require a successful recount or legal challenge that materially alters certified vote shares, though official results show no such pending factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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