**Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected New York City mayor, advanced a "$30 by 2030" minimum wage plan during his 2025 campaign that phases increases gradually rather than front-loading them.** His outlined schedule sets the city floor at $20 per hour in 2027, $23.50 in 2028, $27 in 2029, and $30 only in 2030, with later automatic adjustments tied to cost-of-living or productivity metrics. Current state law sets NYC’s minimum at $17 effective January 2026, and authority to enact a separate city wage has historically rested with the state legislature, creating procedural and legal barriers to rapid local action. City Council discussions in early-to-mid 2026 have referenced higher targets, yet no legislation advancing a $30 floor before 2027 has advanced, and Mamdani has not endorsed an accelerated timeline beyond his original proposal. Economic analyses highlighting risks of business closures, layoffs, and inflation in high-cost sectors have added political friction. These factors align with trader pricing that assigns low probability to reaching $30 before 2027, reflecting the mismatch between the campaign timeline, institutional constraints, and absence of near-term legislative momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$18,708 Vol.
$18,708 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$18,708 Vol.
$18,708 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected New York City mayor, advanced a "$30 by 2030" minimum wage plan during his 2025 campaign that phases increases gradually rather than front-loading them.** His outlined schedule sets the city floor at $20 per hour in 2027, $23.50 in 2028, $27 in 2029, and $30 only in 2030, with later automatic adjustments tied to cost-of-living or productivity metrics. Current state law sets NYC’s minimum at $17 effective January 2026, and authority to enact a separate city wage has historically rested with the state legislature, creating procedural and legal barriers to rapid local action.
City Council discussions in early-to-mid 2026 have referenced higher targets, yet no legislation advancing a $30 floor before 2027 has advanced, and Mamdani has not endorsed an accelerated timeline beyond his original proposal. Economic analyses highlighting risks of business closures, layoffs, and inflation in high-cost sectors have added political friction. These factors align with trader pricing that assigns low probability to reaching $30 before 2027, reflecting the mismatch between the campaign timeline, institutional constraints, and absence of near-term legislative momentum.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Volume
$18,708End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected New York City mayor, advanced a "$30 by 2030" minimum wage plan during his 2025 campaign that phases increases gradually rather than front-loading them.** His outlined schedule sets the city floor at $20 per hour in 2027, $23.50 in 2028, $27 in 2029, and $30 only in 2030, with later automatic adjustments tied to cost-of-living or productivity metrics. Current state law sets NYC’s minimum at $17 effective January 2026, and authority to enact a separate city wage has historically rested with the state legislature, creating procedural and legal barriers to rapid local action.
City Council discussions in early-to-mid 2026 have referenced higher targets, yet no legislation advancing a $30 floor before 2027 has advanced, and Mamdani has not endorsed an accelerated timeline beyond his original proposal. Economic analyses highlighting risks of business closures, layoffs, and inflation in high-cost sectors have added political friction. These factors align with trader pricing that assigns low probability to reaching $30 before 2027, reflecting the mismatch between the campaign timeline, institutional constraints, and absence of near-term legislative momentum.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$18,708End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected New York City mayor, advanced a "$30 by 2030" minimum wage plan during his 2025 campaign that phases increases gradually rather than front-loading them.** His outlined schedule sets the city floor at $20 per hour in 2027, $23.50 in 2028, $27 in 2029, and $30 only in 2030, with later automatic adjustments tied to cost-of-living or productivity metrics. Current state law sets NYC’s minimum at $17 effective January 2026, and authority to enact a separate city wage has historically rested with the state legislature, creating procedural and legal barriers to rapid local action. City Council discussions in early-to-mid 2026 have referenced higher targets, yet no legislation advancing a $30 floor before 2027 has advanced, and Mamdani has not endorsed an accelerated timeline beyond his original proposal. Economic analyses highlighting risks of business closures, layoffs, and inflation in high-cost sectors have added political friction. These factors align with trader pricing that assigns low probability to reaching $30 before 2027, reflecting the mismatch between the campaign timeline, institutional constraints, and absence of near-term legislative momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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