Recent minor performance degradations in OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 large language model have kept trader sentiment tightly balanced on the number of ChatGPT outage days through May 2026, with the market assigning 40.5% implied probability to exactly two days and 35% to three. OpenAI’s status page logged quick recoveries from elevated error rates on May 11 and performance issues on May 15, delivering 99.82% uptime overall, yet isolated reports of degraded responses and file-upload problems on May 13–14 have introduced uncertainty about additional calendar days qualifying as partial or full outages. Competitive pressures from rival models and ongoing scaling of inference infrastructure remain the primary swing factors that could either stabilize service or trigger further brief disruptions before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2 52%
3 28%
4+ 19%
<2 13%
$16,813 Vol.
$16,813 Vol.
May 31, 2026
<2
13%
2
42%
3
35%
4+
19%
2 52%
3 28%
4+ 19%
<2 13%
$16,813 Vol.
$16,813 Vol.
May 31, 2026
<2
$6,572 Vol.
13%
2
$2,864 Vol.
42%
3
$3,749 Vol.
35%
4+
$3,627 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent minor performance degradations in OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 large language model have kept trader sentiment tightly balanced on the number of ChatGPT outage days through May 2026, with the market assigning 40.5% implied probability to exactly two days and 35% to three. OpenAI’s status page logged quick recoveries from elevated error rates on May 11 and performance issues on May 15, delivering 99.82% uptime overall, yet isolated reports of degraded responses and file-upload problems on May 13–14 have introduced uncertainty about additional calendar days qualifying as partial or full outages. Competitive pressures from rival models and ongoing scaling of inference infrastructure remain the primary swing factors that could either stabilize service or trigger further brief disruptions before month-end.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
Volume
$16,813End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent minor performance degradations in OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 large language model have kept trader sentiment tightly balanced on the number of ChatGPT outage days through May 2026, with the market assigning 40.5% implied probability to exactly two days and 35% to three. OpenAI’s status page logged quick recoveries from elevated error rates on May 11 and performance issues on May 15, delivering 99.82% uptime overall, yet isolated reports of degraded responses and file-upload problems on May 13–14 have introduced uncertainty about additional calendar days qualifying as partial or full outages. Competitive pressures from rival models and ongoing scaling of inference infrastructure remain the primary swing factors that could either stabilize service or trigger further brief disruptions before month-end.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,813End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent minor performance degradations in OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 large language model have kept trader sentiment tightly balanced on the number of ChatGPT outage days through May 2026, with the market assigning 40.5% implied probability to exactly two days and 35% to three. OpenAI’s status page logged quick recoveries from elevated error rates on May 11 and performance issues on May 15, delivering 99.82% uptime overall, yet isolated reports of degraded responses and file-upload problems on May 13–14 have introduced uncertainty about additional calendar days qualifying as partial or full outages. Competitive pressures from rival models and ongoing scaling of inference infrastructure remain the primary swing factors that could either stabilize service or trigger further brief disruptions before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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