Anthropic’s dominant positioning reflects its sharp secondary-market valuation surge through August 2026, climbing from the $965 billion May Series H round to estimates of $1.27–1.5 trillion amid reported annualized revenue reaching $65 billion by late July and accelerating enterprise adoption of its Claude models. Traders see this trajectory—fueled by IPO preparations targeting up to $2 trillion—as unmatched among peers, outpacing OpenAI’s flat $852 billion print and limited movement at Databricks, Stripe, or ByteDance. While the market-implied odds capture strong capital-backed consensus on recent momentum, realistic challenges include any slowdown in revenue scaling, intensified competition from open-source alternatives, or regulatory scrutiny that could temper secondary demand before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
Databricks <1%
Stripe <1%
$42,273 Vol.
$42,273 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
Anthropic
Yes
OpenAI
No
Databricks
No
Stripe
No
ByteDance
No
Anthropic 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
Databricks <1%
Stripe <1%
$42,273 Vol.
$42,273 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
Anthropic
$8,250 Vol.
Yes
OpenAI
$4,699 Vol.
No
Databricks
$22,855 Vol.
No
Stripe
$2,406 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$4,064 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Anthropic’s dominant positioning reflects its sharp secondary-market valuation surge through August 2026, climbing from the $965 billion May Series H round to estimates of $1.27–1.5 trillion amid reported annualized revenue reaching $65 billion by late July and accelerating enterprise adoption of its Claude models. Traders see this trajectory—fueled by IPO preparations targeting up to $2 trillion—as unmatched among peers, outpacing OpenAI’s flat $852 billion print and limited movement at Databricks, Stripe, or ByteDance. While the market-implied odds capture strong capital-backed consensus on recent momentum, realistic challenges include any slowdown in revenue scaling, intensified competition from open-source alternatives, or regulatory scrutiny that could temper secondary demand before resolution.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 5:43 AM ET
Volume
$42,273End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Anthropic’s dominant positioning reflects its sharp secondary-market valuation surge through August 2026, climbing from the $965 billion May Series H round to estimates of $1.27–1.5 trillion amid reported annualized revenue reaching $65 billion by late July and accelerating enterprise adoption of its Claude models. Traders see this trajectory—fueled by IPO preparations targeting up to $2 trillion—as unmatched among peers, outpacing OpenAI’s flat $852 billion print and limited movement at Databricks, Stripe, or ByteDance. While the market-implied odds capture strong capital-backed consensus on recent momentum, realistic challenges include any slowdown in revenue scaling, intensified competition from open-source alternatives, or regulatory scrutiny that could temper secondary demand before resolution.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-07-31&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f%2Ccompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If two or more companies have the same unrounded percentage increase in valuation at resolution, and that percentage increase is the highest among all companies in the market, the market will resolve to the company with the highest valuation.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$42,273End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Anthropic’s dominant positioning reflects its sharp secondary-market valuation surge through August 2026, climbing from the $965 billion May Series H round to estimates of $1.27–1.5 trillion amid reported annualized revenue reaching $65 billion by late July and accelerating enterprise adoption of its Claude models. Traders see this trajectory—fueled by IPO preparations targeting up to $2 trillion—as unmatched among peers, outpacing OpenAI’s flat $852 billion print and limited movement at Databricks, Stripe, or ByteDance. While the market-implied odds capture strong capital-backed consensus on recent momentum, realistic challenges include any slowdown in revenue scaling, intensified competition from open-source alternatives, or regulatory scrutiny that could temper secondary demand before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions