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icon for SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·South Dakota Primary

SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner

icon for SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·South Dakota Primary

SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner

Nikki Gronli 96.0%

Billy Mawhiney 2.3%

Scott Schlagel 1.8%

Polymarket

$11,376 Vol.

Nikki Gronli 96.0%

Billy Mawhiney 2.3%

Scott Schlagel 1.8%

Polymarket

$11,376 Vol.

Nikki Gronli

$2,014 Vol.

96%

Billy Mawhiney

$4,404 Vol.

2%

Scott Schlagel

$4,959 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Nikki Gronli commands 96% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner for South Dakota's At-Large Democratic primary on June 2, propelled by Billy Mawhiney's suspension of his campaign in February 2026, which eliminated the primary's main challenger and left only lesser-known Scott Schlagel in active contention alongside residual Mawhiney ballot support. As former USDA Rural Development Director and small business owner, Gronli holds establishment advantages in this low-turnout contest for the open House seat, with no recent polling, endorsements, or developments altering sentiment ahead of the May 18 voter registration deadline. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or an improbable voter surge could challenge her, though proximity to election day renders such shifts highly unlikely.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,376
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Nikki Gronli commands 96% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner for South Dakota's At-Large Democratic primary on June 2, propelled by Billy Mawhiney's suspension of his campaign in February 2026, which eliminated the primary's main challenger and left only lesser-known Scott Schlagel in active contention alongside residual Mawhiney ballot support. As former USDA Rural Development Director and small business owner, Gronli holds establishment advantages in this low-turnout contest for the open House seat, with no recent polling, endorsements, or developments altering sentiment ahead of the May 18 voter registration deadline. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or an improbable voter surge could challenge her, though proximity to election day renders such shifts highly unlikely.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,376
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nikki Gronli" at 96%, followed by "Billy Mawhiney" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $11.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner" is "Nikki Gronli" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Billy Mawhiney" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.